05/04/2005: "Amazing Race metrics update"

Next week is the last week of The Amazing Race. I haven't updated my metrics in a while, so I thought I'd do that now so that everyone (including my brother who I'm competing against) will know the current situation going into the last week (see here for formulas and goals):

Ranking stability week #1: Ken 1.81 Briain 1.27
Ranking stability week #2: Ken 1.20 Brian 2.20
Ranking stability week #3: Ken 1.00 Brian 2.00
Ranking stability week #4: Ken 0.29 Brian 0.29
Ranking stability week #5: Ken 0.50 Brian 1.00
Ranking stability week #6: Ken 0.80 Brian 0.80
Ranking stability week #7: Ken 0.00 Briain 0.00
Ranking stability week #8: Ken 0.25 Brian 0.25
Ranking stability week #9: Ken 0.25 Brian 0.00
Ranking stability week #10: Ken 0.00 Brian 0.25

Season ranking stability: Ken 0.43 Brian: 0.68

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.50 Brian: 2.13

Skill Score: Ken 1.08 Brian 1.45

As you can see, Brian has been slightly better at predicting who's gone next while I have been able to be fairly accurate without as much thrashing in my rankings. So who's going to win? Well, here are the scenarios (Ranking stability is now completed):

Finishing order of 1. Rob and Amber, 2. Uchenna and Joyce, 3. Ron and Kelly (My current ordering):

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 1.82 Brian: 1.73
Skill Score: Ken 0.78 Brian 1.18

Finishing order of 1. Uchenna and Joyce, 2. Rob and Amber, 3. Ron and Kelly (Brian's current ordering):

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.00 Brian: 1.55
Skill Score: Ken 0.86 Brian 1.05

Finishing order of 1. Rob and Amber, 2. Ron and Kelly, 3. Uchenna and Joyce:

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.00 Brian: 1.91
Skill Score: Ken 0.86 Brian 1.30

Finishing order of 1. Uchenna and Joyce, 2. Ron and Kelly, 3. Rob and Amber:

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.18 Brian: 1.73
Skill Score: Ken 0.94 Brian 1.18

Finishing order of 1. Ron and Kelly, 2. Rob and Amber, 3. Uchenna and Joyce:

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.18 Brian: 1.91
Skill Score: Ken 0.94 Brian 1.30

Finishing order of 1. Ron and Kelly, 2. Uchenna and Joyce, 3. Rob and Amber:

Philimination accuracy: Ken: 2.18 Brian: 1.91
Skill Score: Ken 0.94 Brian 1.30

So, as you can see, I win in all scenarios. One could make a number of arguments about the metrics being unfair but I don't see many that are. About the only thing that could be argued is that the Skill Score should be additive as opposed to multiplicative. If that were the case, I'd win in a number of the 2 of the 6 scenarios. Because of how small the stability numbers are, that would be putting more emphasis on finishing order as opposed to stability so I think my formulas well represent performance over the season.

Ken Crawford :

Well, I have to give Brian (my brother) credit for nailing the winner of the Amazing Race. No matter how it happened, that involves skill to hit it from week 3.

That said, I've never seen such a lucky team in the final week. Planes NEVER put back out the gate once it has been retracted. My bet is that the runners of the show wanted a close finish so they put the pressure on the airline to get them on the flight even though there is no way it would have happened otherwise.

Plus the 12 hour bunchup monster was a necessary pre-requisite. I couldn't believe that, particularly with how little they had to do after that before the finish and how few bunchup monsters there had been in the last few legs.

But one MAJOR piece of credit goes to the winners: sticking around to beg for money for their cab driver, that took class. All they had to do was ditch him and they had 1 million dollars. Maybe the show made them get the cash, again to make things as close as possible (which it really wasn't).

05.11.05 @ 08:14 AM PST

Ken Crawford :

Lets be clear on who has had their #1 team in first place longer: Me. I've had Rob and Amber in 1st since week 2. You can't make the same claim.

I'll give you some points for the fact that my metrics don't give any weight to picking the right team to win it all. Maybe for next season you'll help me formulate better metrics...

05.06.05 @ 10:16 AM PST

Ken's Brother :

Isn't it funny how in Ken's "metric" system he's the winner in all scenario's?
Too bad in the real world, the winner is whoever predicted the winner first... and that'd be me, who picked Uchenna and Joyce back in like week 3 and has held them faithfully there ever since.
Check and MATE! lol.

05.05.05 @ 10:08 AM PST [homepage]