Updated Pac-10 metrics

Well, I knew the Washington vs. UCLA game was the game I didn’t know enough about to predict and sure enough, it was the one game I didn’t call the winner correctly.

Here are the rest of the metrics:

  • MVD: 15.6 (down from 16.3 with new scores of 10, 18, 1, 8 and 23)
  • TPD: 14.6 (down from 14.7 with new scores of 26, 0, 1, 28 and 17)
  • Winning Percentage: 79.4 (up from 79.2 after going 4-1)

So my numbers are starting to get closer to the targets I have (80% of wins and under 14 points for both MVD and TPD).  With a couple more solid weeks I can hopefully get on the good side of those targets.

But while we’re on the topic of predictions, I have a form letter for everyone out there who doubted Cal’s ability to beat ASU:

I, (your name here), will no longer doubt that Cal has ASU’s number, particularly in Berkeley.  I will remember that ASU is never as good as their numbers suggest until they’ve reached the meat of their Pac-10 schedule.  I will also remember not to let a complete dismantling of ASU cause me to be over confident regarding Cal’s future opponents because it is not that Cal is that good but because ASU is that bad against the big teams in the Pac-10.  This I pledge as a reader of the Bear Territory blog.

Signed (your name here)

2 Responses to “Updated Pac-10 metrics”

  1. Michael Says:

    Hahaha I mentioned on my blog that you were right, Ken. Still, take away all of out flat out amazing plays, such as the returned kickoff, and all the interceptions, and it would be a tie game. We really didn’t play that well when you consider meat and potatoes football – look at time of posession and # of 1st downs to see that. Carpenter completely melted down, and our D was amazing at picking off his throws, which led to good field position and points. Their play calling also left SQT alone for most of the game. You can bet Oregon won’t make that mistake. Our run D was a little iffy, too, but as many have said before, that may be because our D was told to go after the pass this game and let the runs go.

    Still, it was beautiful to watch. I have been screaming for a Cal returned kickoff touchdown (seems like everyone does it to us) for a long time now, and we finally got one! I almost had a heart attack when I thought there was a chance DJax would be out for the season. I’m expecting an easy win at OSU (and I seldom predict easy wins) and a real nailbiter against Oregon back in Berkeley. If we can get through that 2-0, then it’s smooth sailing all the way to the University of South Central, unless of course you’re buying into the hype that the Huskies are rising from their ashes bringing glory and terror.

    One last thing: Lynch is putting up respectable numbers, but where are the amazing, beat 5 different defenders to bust through and score a touchdown runs he was performing almost every game last year? He’s a playmaker, and it breaks my heart to see him being used as a “gain 5 yard for the 1st down” power back.

  2. Ken Crawford Says:

    I completely agree with your criticisms (although where’s the 4th non-offensive TD to tie the game? I’ve got two INT’s and one punt runback…). This is not a case of the Bears being dominant as much as it is a case of ASU falling flat on their face.

    In fairness to SQT, I was watching him a lot and he did a pretty good job and he’ll less and less be on my list of things to worry about. He’s got the talent and is growing into the role.

    And I guess we’ll have to remain on opposite sides of the prediction fence because at least at this early point, OSU is one of those teams that worries me. Remember that they beat us in Berkeley last year and have played good football this year minus the game vs. Boise St. (which I view as an aberation on the blue turf).