Adding OSU to the Pac-10 mix
As I was analyzing the Pac-10 records, I realized that OSU is very much in the hunt, if not for the top spot, at least for one of the 2 or 3. They’ve got the one big advantage that everyone else without a backbone wishes they had: a bye vs. USC. Right now they’re 2-1 in Pac-10 play.
Once I realized that, I decided take a good hard look at the Pac-10 and make sure my assumptions weren’t completely out of whack. What I found was re-assuring (from my assumptions perspective). 3 teams are 0-3 and don’t seem to be getting any better: Arizona, Washingon and WaZoo. Now with 6 teams in the leaderboard mix with OSU added, there is only one team remaining: Stanford. Stanford is 2-1 and admitted seems to have righted and made seaworthy the ship that was holed, capsized and run up against a rocky shore in September. So why didn’t I add them to the list? Well, because the only team in the top half of the Pac-10 they’ve played is Oregon who is responsible for that ‘1’ in the L column. In the next 4 weeks they play ASU, UCLA, at USC, and at OSU. I really don’t see them winning any of those games particulary with how beat up they’ll be after USC and going on the road to OSU and ASU coming off a bye this past week.
But put this in your pipe and smoke it: Assuming Cal plays how I’d expect in the next three games (1-2) and Stanford loses at least 3 of their 4 games (which I’d go to Vegas with), the Big Game should be deciding who gets #6 in the Pac-10 between us. Now there is a reversal of fortunes!
In any case, here is the updated spreadsheet with OSU added which required adding 2 games to the matrix. I’ve highlighted in green what I think are the 4 most likely scenarios (scroll down to the bottom) and put the best scenarios for Cal at the top. Notice that the best Cal can do now is get in a 6-way tie for first place with all 6 teams having 2 losses. I don’t want to have to be the one to decide who goes to the BCS bowl in that scenario (although if it’s the same scenario as the old Rose Bowl rules it’ll be Cal (since they’ve got the longest streak of being unable to go).).