Pac-10 picks
Well it’s that time of the week again. Time to pick who’s going to win their games in the Pac-10:
USC 45, Washington 17: There is not much to say about this game. USC is just the better team playing at a stadium once know for it’s huge home field advantage that is no more.
ASU 35, Stanford 13: This game hinges around one thing, that Stanford can’t score to save their lives. ASU won’t be as much of a stronger team as people think, but their ability to hold on to the ball coupled with Stanford’s amazing ability to punt after 3 bad plays, will wear “the cardinal” down and ASU wins this one going away.
OSU 35, UCLA 24: UCLA is the worst #8 team in the nation in a long time (remember that Cal only made it to #9). OSU is the most under-appreciated team in the Pac-10. They’ve showed a lot of heart in Berkeley last week and have VERY strong offensive and defensive lines. I see UCLA looking past OSU and getting behind in this game only to find that Maurice Drew can’t run the ball all over the field like he has in previous weeks. OSU wins in this shocker.
Oregon 42, Arizona 20: Oregon’s offense is pretty potent this year, much more potent than people give them credit for. Arizona is stronger than most people give them credit for, but they’re not going to be able to slow Oregon down.
Cal 42, WaZoo 34: This game has shootout written all over it. These two teams can both score. The difference is that Cal scores on the ground and WaZoo scores through the air (primarily). WaZoo also employs a spread offense which has given the Bears trouble for years. The key to this game for Cal is their ability to control the line of scrimage and to win the time of possession game. Looking at how WaZoo was man-handled on the line by UCLA, OSU and Stanford, I think Cal will be able to do it. Nevertheless, this game will be tighter than it should.
Tune in Monday for the results and the updated metrics!
October 21st, 2005 at 1:40 pm
Ken, I’m going to have to disagree with you this week.
You’re on the money with only two games. USC will take out a second morgage on youdub. And the Duckies will get an easy win over AZ.
Unfortunatly, Stanford will take out ASU, UCLA will smack OSU around, and sadly WaZoo will hurt Cal big time. I mean I love Cal like a college I never went to an all, but Booya is on the decline and I’m calling for the demise of the season.
October 21st, 2005 at 2:29 pm
Alright cracksmoker. I can give you some credit on the UCLA over OSU game. It might be that Cal is on the decline and OSU isn’t as good as I think. That does open up the possibility as well that WaZoo can beat Cal as well (and in defense I called it a shootout suggesting that either team has a shot). However, there is no way Stanford wins over ASU. You’re the one smoking crack there. Here’s my reasons:
1. Stanford hasn’t scored more that 24 points all season except in the opening game vs. Navy (who suck).
2. ASU hasn’t scored less than 42 points against an unranked opponent.
3. ASU played a MUCH better game against Oregon than Stanford did.
4. Stanford hasn’t won a game at home yet (may have something to do with there only being 43 fans in the stadium).
5. UC Davis
As for OSU vs. UCLA, I’ll admit that this game could go either way, but UCLA is not going to “smack OSU around”. UCLA has had 3 squeekers in a row where they needed big comebacks to win. You can’t keep doing that week after week. Eventually it takes its toll on the team. Plus, they’ve played particularly weak against the perceived weaker teams needing big comebacks to seal the victory. They won’t be able to do that vs. OSU. I suspect UCLA is overlooking OSU thinking they’re another Washington, WaZoo or Arizona. OSU is better than that. OSU’s defense is too strong, particularly against the run. People have been berating their pass defense. People forget that they played games 4 games in a row against teams that make their living throwing the ball (Boise St., Louisville, ASU, WaZoo). I think that has squewed the numbers against them. Although their pass defense definitely had their weaknesses against Cal, they didn’t look horrible. I think this game will be close no matter which way it goes but I think this is the game that UCLA blows it. Or put another way, if Cal came close to beating both of these teams (in fact they looked better against UCLA), those teams must be close to the same skill level, right?
October 21st, 2005 at 9:21 pm
not at all Ken, this is where you’re wrong.
Against UCLA we gave it our all and we lost a close one when we fell apart early. Against OSU we came out sucking ass and managed to go downhill from there (and still kept it interesting to some degree). My hypothesis is that UCLA is better than us, and we’re better than OSU, but we just weren’t on our game against OSU.
OSU won’t be able to run nearly as well against UCLA as they did on us, and UCLA will have more success with their run against OSU.
The fact is when Cal is forced to reliable upon the QB formerly known as competent we’re in trouble. When we can lean on our running game to get us 500 yards a game, our passing game looks good because the defense is tired from our trifecta of running prowless. When the running game can’t get it going the passing game is exposed for the fraud that it is.
UCLA on the other hand has a passing game. In fact if Maurice Drew was shot and couldn’t play and they weren’t allowed to run the ball at all, UCLA would be a mid level Pac 10 team. If we were in the same situation, we’d be glad we didn’t schedule UC Davis…
That’s why I expect OSU to come out, and present UCLA with their playbook at midfield and ask for the earliest flight back to whichever podunkt town in Oregon they’re from to start with.
October 22nd, 2005 at 8:20 am
OK, I might be willing to be talked into your point of view on that game. For that to happen you have to admit you’re all wet about Stanford vs. ASU.
October 23rd, 2005 at 8:12 pm
Looks like your brother was right about the Furd. They are growing in ability. Many old Blues are expecting a close Big Game, and some are giving Furd the edge… this is not exactly how the season begun, is it?
UCLA isn’t going down until the USC game, either. And I don’t want them to. I want them to beat Stanford within a shred of their lives. If the Furd wins that game it’s a huge emotional victory and they will come into the Cal game as favorites. Watch it happen.
October 24th, 2005 at 9:05 am
Thanks Michael Cruz!
and to think Cal came within millimeters of choking the game away on Saturday thus giving me a 5 for 5 on the weekend.
As I like to say, there’s a reason Ken doesn’t work in sports.