Past Pac-10 picks and metrics
Everyone who knows me knows that I love metrics to measure things. So here’s my past Pac-10 picks and their accuracy based on 3 metrics:
Winner (percentage)
Margin of Victory Delta (average), MVD
Total Points Scored Delta (average), TPD
So here are my past picks:
(format is: my picks -> actual score: metrics)
Last week:
Cal 56, New Mexico State 7 -> Cal 41, NMSU 13: MVD=21, TPD=9
Washington 17, Notre Dame 35 -> UW 17, ND 36: MVD=1, TPD=1
USC 42, Oregon 31 -> USC 45, Oregon 13: MVD=21, TPD=15
ASU 41, OSU 20 -> ASU 42, OSU 24: MVD=4 TPD=4
2 weeks ago:
OSU 20, Louisville, 24 -> OSU 27, Louisville 63: MVD=32, TPD=46
Cal 45, Illinios 20 -> Cal 35, Illinios 20: MVD=1o, TPD=10
UCLA 20, Oklahoma 24 -> UCLA 41, OK 24: MVD=21, TPD=21
WaZoo 49, Grambling 31 -> WaZoo 48, Grambling 7: MVD=23, TPD=25
Oregon 28, Fresno 20 -> Oregon 37, Fresno 34: MVD=5, TPD=23
USC 42, Arkansas 13 -> USC 70, Arkansas 17: MVD=24, TPD=32
ASU 35, Northwestern 17 -> ASU 52, NW 21: MVD=13, TPD=21
Stanford 38, UC Davis 10 -> Stanford 17, UC Davis 20: MVD 31, TPD=11
Arizona 14, Purdue 28 -> UA 24, Purdue 31: MVD=7,TPD=13
Washington 35, Idaho 24 -> UW 34, Idaho 6: MVD: 17, TPD=19
Total metrics
Winner: 85.7%
MVD: 16.0
TPD: 18.5
So, while I did a pretty good job of picking the winner, the victories were usually bigger than I expected which hurt both my margin of victory and toptal points scored. I was surprising accurate at getting the losers score.
We’ll see how I do this week! Tune in Monday for results.