When I did the statistics for the Cal vs. Oregon game last week I was smart and did it in a programatic fashion so that it was easy to redo with added Cal statistics and against a new opponent.  In fact, I’m 90% of the way to having a webpage available where you can compare whatever teams you want to one another.  It would be completely done if it weren’t for the fact that I’m getting this information from another website which shall go un-named and blocked me when I ran this script with too many teams assumably because of the amount of traffic I was generating.  I’ll need to start caching the information on my server to prevent that before I can release it to the general public.

In any case, I give you the result of that labor for your own analysis for the upcoming Cal vs. WaZoo game:

A reminder that the Opponents fields are flipped so that you see a comparison of what they were giving up, not accomplishing.  See this post for details.

OK, before I get rolling in this post, I want to make it clear that I’m not predicting a championship, nor is this the result of hubris after the Oregon victory.  What I’m trying to do is honestly assess whether there is any chance of Cal making it to the National Championship game assuming Cal does everything right from here on out.  According to Stewart Mandel the Bears are one of nine teams with a shot at it (Ohio St., Michigan, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia, Louisville, USC and Cal).  After looking things over I think there are a handful of additional teams that could do it although Mandel made sure to indicate that he was including whether he thought the teams had the skills to pull it off and not just theoretically being in the running.  In any case, what would it take for the Bears to make it to the title game?

First of all, it of course requires that Cal go undefeated for the rest of the season.  There is just no way a 2 loss team makes it to the title game.  The other thing it would require is that there not be 2 or more undefeated teams in the BCS conferences as a 1 loss team won’t go before an undefeated team.  Part of me thinks that Cal could edge out a Big East undefeated team like Louisville, and while I’ll leave that as a VERY outside possibility, it would require that Cal SO destroy every one of their remaining opponents that the pollsters are impressed and that the undefeated Big East team have a number of close calls and not look impressive.  Even still I think there would be a tendency for the pollsters to give the nod to the undefeated team.

So that means that at most one team can go undefeated.  Let’s look at the undefeated BCS teams remaining:

• Ohio State
• Michigan
• West Virginia
• Louisville
• Florida
• USC
• Missouri

Missouri is undefeated because of a very weak schedule and there is no reason to believe they will remain undefeated.  USC will have one loss because if Cal goes undefeated, Cal will beat them.  Of the top 4 only two can be undefeated because they play each other.  Florida has a very difficult schedule with games against Auburn, Georgia, Florida St. and the best team in the SEC west in the SEC championship game.  If they go undefeated the most assuredly deserve the shot at the national title game before the Bears.

I’m going to assume that the winner of the Ohio St. vs Michigan game goes undefeated because the Big 10 looks to be a 2 horse race between them.  So for Cal to even have a plausible shot, the winner of the West Virginia vs. Louisville game must lose some other game and Florida must get tripped up somewhere in it’s schedule.

But what about all the 1 loss teams… what does it take for Cal to be the 1 loss team that goes to the title game?  Well, I think there is only one 1 loss team that would definitely go before Cal: Tennessee.  Obviously having beat us, they’re going to go before us particularly considering their loss was to Florida.

As for the rest, USC wouldn’t go before Cal because Cal beat them, the loser of the Ohio St., Michigan game wouldn’t go because their opponent would be going.  Because there is no playoff in college football, for the title game there is a desire to make sure that the two teams haven’t already played each other.  Texas suffers from the same problem if Ohio St. wins out and for some reason I think would still suffer from that factor if Michigan went because of the Michigan over Ohio St. over Texas line.  However that line isn’t as clear.  Overall I don’t think they go before Cal because in the end I think the Pac-10 will be considered stronger than the Big-12.

Florida is a team that would likely go before Cal because of the Florida over Tennessee over Cal line, however it really depends who Florida loses to and by how much.  If they lose a squeeker to one of the tough teams I mentioned, they still would likely rate over Cal but a big loss, particularly to a lesser team would likely put Cal in front.

Notre Dame is probably the biggest wild card in relations to Cal because of their ‘X’-factor.  I think a big determining factor will be how they match up against USC relative to Cal.  If Cal blows USC out and Notre Dame wins a squeeker, even with the ‘X’-factor, I think Cal goes.  The best thing that could happen is for USC to destroy Notre Dame after Notre Dame wins the rest of their games because it makes the Pac-10 and Cal look stronger.

And that’s it for teams that are current ranked in front of Cal with the exception of Louisville and West Virginia who won’t rank ahead of Cal with 1 loss.  There are a few teams that are below Cal right now that could leapfrog Cal with strong play:

• Auburn
• Clemsen
• Georgia Tech

But that’s pretty much the size of it.  So in summary, here’s what needs to happen for Cal to go to the national title game in my humble opinion:

• Cal finished out 11-1 in impressive fashion
• Florida loses at least one (one big or any two)
• The winner of the Louisville vs West Virginia game loses some other game
• Tennessee loses a second game
• Cal beats USC by far more than Notre Dame (or Notre Dame loses another game)
• Texas doesn’t do something to impress the pollsters
• Auburn, Clemsen and Georgia dont’ do something DRAMATIC to impress the pollsters

That’s a pretty reasonable list.  While there is a pretty reasonable shot that at least one or two of them don’t happen, it’s also still very much in the realm of possibilities that Cal go to the national title game.  How about that!

WOW!  I did not expect that.  Before I get to the meat of the game I’ve got 3 intro non-game related issues:

1. DirecTivo SUCKS!
2. Duck fans are getting worse.
3. For the remaining Duck fans: take heart, you can make this game your Tennessee.

Going in order:

#1. Every week I record the game on my TiVo (via my DirecTV subscription) so that I can review the game at home afterwards, particularly any plays that were difficult to see at the game (or missed during a food/bathroom break).  This week when I looked on Friday afternoon to pick the show to record, all it had for the game was a subscription ESPN game-plan channel.  I decided to record it just in case.  I also went to the timeslot where the football game was supposed to be on ABC to see that it just had the title “College Football” without any information about the teams.  I assumed the reason was because the guide had yet to update with the specifics because I knew the game was going to be on ABC (which I was right), so I recorded it too (I’ve got a duel tuner so it can record two shows at once).  I got home today to find that the ESPN premium channel (which I don’t subscribe to), while it recorded, showed up as a blank screen (for obvious reasons) and the ABC broadcast wasn’t recorded at all.  I assume the reason the ABC broadcast didn’t record is because the title of the show probably changed between when I set it up to record and when it was supposed to record to include the teams involved.  The result was that it dropped my recording of a now “non-existant” show.  The end result is that I didn’t get the recording of the game all because my DirecTivo SUCKS!

#2.  Was I the only one who thought the Ducks fans this year were the most obnoxious I have ever seen them?  They were beligerant, disrespectful and showed a complete lack of class.  They were bad enough that I though Phil should be issuing a Whammy, but seeing as how they lost I guess a Whammy doesn’t make any sense.  Or perhaps he issued the Whammy before the game and that’s what explains the result.

#3.  For you noble Duck fans, take heart.  I saw talent in your team.  While I don’t know if the Ducks could have won that game even if they came with their ‘A’ game, I do know that they didn’t bring their ‘A’ game.  Upsetting USC can still be in the cards for the Ducks as well as running the rest of the Pac-10 table.  Make the Cal game your Tennessee, not the game that unravels your season.

OK, onto the game.

As much as I need to eat some humble-pie for chastizing those who said Cal would blow out Oregon, I do feel some vindication in my pre-game predictions as the issues I brought up as being key to the game were indeed the keys to the game.  Turnovers, Punts, Containing Dixon, Ball Control (particularly in the 2nd half) and slowing down the Spread were all what turned this game into the blowout it was.

The part that impresses me most was how Cal kept Dixon confused and made the spread ineffective.  The key to the Spread seems to be the quick reads and throws.  Because the offense is just as spread out as the defense, long plays allow the defensive line to close in on the QB.  It seemed that about every other play I saw a couple of linebackers dramatically shift their zones after Dixon had made his pre-snap reads.  Just about every time that happened, Dixon looked hesitant and confused as he was trying to find the open reciever after the snap.  It was a genius plan and I’ve got to give all kinds of credit to Bob Gregory.

Beyond that, the defense played very disciplined and tough defense.  They were able to cover all the recievers even with all of the trickery and the line was able to consistently put pressure on Dixon (and by the way, the Oregon offensive line was holding on so many plays that the refs should have run out of penalty flags and Cal STILL got pressure).

And that was the difference in this game.  The offense played just as well as I expected them to play.  The only thing that surprised me was that the Oregon defense was still lining up man-on-man for Cal’s wideouts.  How long is it going to take for a Pac-10 team to recognize that doing that is giving 21+ free points to the Bears?  I mean, I’m not complaining but come on, this is not Ayoob’s Bears anymore!

Looking forward, while I know Tedford will keep the Bears focused on each game (as well he should), I don’t see anything before the USC game that should concern Bears fans.  WSU is looking impotent offensively and Cal should be able to light them up.  Washington although stout, is probably still an easy win because the game is in Berkeley.  UCLA shouldn’t be any trouble either again in part because the game is in Berkeley (they are another team like ASU that just can’t seem to get the job done in Berkeley).  Arizona on the road shouldn’t be a problem either in part because they continue to suck and in part because the Bears own Arizona.  Then we play USC in LA.

Looking at that game, based on what we know now, I think Cal has a VERY good shot at winning that game.  In fact, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see USC with a couple losses by then.  But even if they don’t, I think Cal has the game, both on defense and offense, to win that one.  The mistakes will be the key factor and one of the things I like about this team is how mistake free they are.  I’ll be watching the USC vs. ASU game with great interest next week because I think it will tell us a lot about USC.  Combining that with Cal’s game vs WSU and we’ll then have two direct comparision teams to evaluate the matchup from so I think the picture will be much clearer next Sunday.

Finally, I need to make a request of FoxSportsNetwork:  Could you guys PLEASE pick up the Cal vs. Washington game and play it during your 7:00 PM time slot?  PLEASE!  See, I’ve got a big sailing regatta that weekend that I can’t miss and I could choose option ‘c’ (all of the above) if you guys got the game moved to 7:00 PM.  If you do, I’ll be singing your praises until you don’t answer one of my future pleas.  Deal?

GO BEARS!

Since I have so much to say about the Bears game, I start with the updated Pac-10 metrics.

Yet again I was 5-0 and was mostly right on how thing would turn out.  I was suprised that UCLA was able to put so many points up on Arizona and doubly surprised that OSU vs. WaZoo ended up being a defensive struggle.  If that’s really WSU’s situation this year then next week is going to be a cake-walk.  But before I get ahead of myself, here are this week’s updated numbers, all improved:

• MVD: 14.3 (down from 14.9 with new scores of 18, 2, 13, 8 and 11)
• TPD: 13.4 (basically flat from last week with scores of 10, 2, 7, 36 (ouch!) and 11)
• Winning Percentage: 84.6 (up from 82.4 after going 5-0 for the second straight week)

OK, check back later today for a review of the Bears game.

Now that I’ve reviewed the Cal vs. Oregon game onto my picks for the rest of the Pac-10.

Cal 38, Oregon 31: See here for details.

USC 24, Wash 20: What is it with USC in getting the schedules they need every year?  Last year they had one of the toughest schedules ever, perfect for one of the greatest teams ever.  This year, when rebuilding, they get everyone who is even remotely dangerous at home (Cal, Oregon, Notre Dame, ASU and the suprise Washington Huskies) and the toughest ones at the end of the season after they’ve had a chance to work all the kinks out.  What luck.  I’ve noticed that UW seems to play better at home and if this game was in Washington I’d be tempted to pull for the upset.  I just can’t do that down in smogsville.

Arizona 17, UCLA 24: This is a game that will help define the bottom of the Pac-10.  UCLA will leave this game with all kinds of confidence having won 2 Pac-10 games in a row.  However, they will have done it against the two most pathetic offenses in the Pac-10.  They’re going to be very disappointed the following week in Eugene, Oregon.

WaZoo 35, OSU 20: Poor OSU.  They’re going to be in way over their head with the passing attack of WaZoo.  While I think OSU has the fundamentals to win a fair number of games, WaZoo’s deep threat will keep them busy all day.  The smartest thing OSU could do is keep 2 safeties back and stop the long ball.  Without the long ball, OSU wins.  But they won’t, so they won’t win.

Stanford 10, Notre Dame 42: This game is a gift from God to Catholics around the country.  Stanford hasn’t scored more than 10 against anybody but San Jose St. and they’re not going to do it against Notre Dame.  Notre Dame will put this game out of question faster than Stanford can build an empty stadium.

OK, that’s it for this week.  Tune in on Monday for a review of the Bears game and updated Pac-10 metrics.

OK, the time is finally here.  Time for me to breakdown what is going to be an amazing game that will not soon be forgotten.

Let me start out by saying that anyone who thinks they know who is going to win this game is guessing.  There are too many wildcards and the deeper I peel into this onion the more layers I find.  Luckily that’s never stopped me from prognosticating.

The key to this game will be ball control.  Both offenses are SO potent that the team that wins will be the one that controls the game.  The key to doing that is turnovers and time of possession.

Turnovers is the easier of the two categories to break down so I’ll start with that.  Both teams are giving up 2.3 turnovers per game so it looks to be fairly close.  However, Cal is forcing 3.0 turnovers per game, much higher than their opponents (Tennessee, Minnesota, Portland St., ASU and Oregon St.) 2.1 turnovers per game were giving up on average.  Oregon is forcing 2.0 turnovers per game, far LESS than the 2.7 their opponents (Stanford, Fresno St., Oklahoma and ASU) were giving up.   I think this tips this category in Cal’s favor.

Time of possesion is a much more murky category.  Mostly this comes down to the running game and the possession passing game (short slants and outs, screens, etc.).  Oregon seems to have a statistical advantage in this category running for nearly 240 yards per game.  That’s a little bit deceiving however because 30 yards per game come from their QB and scrambling does NOT equal possession football.  Another caveat is that Oregon has played teams particularly susceptible to the run.  They’re giving up 20 extra yards per game than Cal’s opponents.

Cal on the other hand, has played against teams that are loading the box to slow down a potent run game and is still putting up 160 yards per game.  The result has been that Cal has burned them long with the passing game.  Nobody doubts the strength of the Cal running game and I expect Oregon to be more balanced in their defense than Cal’s previous opponents.  Add to these realities that Oregon is actually giving up more rushing yards per game than it’s opponents are averaging in their games (this was about the only category where either Cal or Oregon was doing significantly worse than their opponents allowed on average) and there is reason to believe that the Cal rushing game will do its part on Saturday.

There are so many areas I could review, but I keep my thoughts to a few remaining areas:

Punting.  If this game isn’t a shootout, Cal seems to have a substantial advantage in the punting game.  We’ve all seen how well Larson punts the ball and his 43.8 yard average although good, doesn’t do justice to his high booming kicks.  There is much to be impressed with Cal’s kick coverage as well often dropping the returner for losses.  Oregon’s punter on the other hand only has a 36.6. average and supposedly isn’t very consistent.  That’ll be trouble both from a field position perspective and if he ever lines one that Desean Jackson has an opportunity to return.

Scrambling.  We all know that Longshore is not a scrambing QB although he seems to be doing a good job of avoiding pressure so far.  However good avoiding pressure is, it’s not nearly the threat that Dixon is with is feet.  Containment of Dixon will be a key factor on Saturday.

Spread.  Oregon runs the true spread.  Cal has a history of struggling against the spread.  Cal also has not played a spread team thus far this year.  This is the area that worries me most about the Cal defense.  If Cal can contain Dixon and keep the spread in check, then Cal will win this game, possibly even convincingly.  If they can’t, it may be a long day in Berkeley.

In conclusion, my feeling is that this is going to be a great matchup of two very powerful teams.  Neither team is going to run away with this one, but after looking over all of the numbers, I’m convinced that Cal has what it takes to squeek this one out particularly with the home-field advantage.

Cal 38, Oregon 31.

While I’ve seen a number of “can we please move on past Tennessee please” articles this one struck just the right cord.  It was particularly good in making the parallel in regards to the Oregon vs Oklahoma game.

I propose that from now on Tennessee be referred to by all Cal bloggers as The Team That Will Not Be Named.

OK, I can’t STAND the previews I’m reading for this weekends game.  It’s further proof that there is a template that reporters can’t get out of.  It goes like this:

1. Team A is good/bad and looking for (revenge/vindication/playoffs/whatever)
2. Here are a bunch of stats about team A to make the point
3. Here are a couple caveat stats about team A
4. But don’t forget team B, they’re good/bad and looking for (revenge/vindication/playoffs/whatever)
5. Here’s a couple stats about team B

And that’s it.  No head to head numbers.  No comparison of common opponents.  Just team A for 2/3rds about team A and then a 1/3rd about team B.  It’s absolutely pathetic.

At least this week the articles have been balanced in that 1/2 of them have the Bears as team A and half have the Ducks as team A, but considering the matchup, a much better preview is deserved, particularly in the area of statistics.  And generally what statistics are provided are done so to tell a story as opposed to just sharing truly meaning statistics and absolutely NO comparisons are done.

Yesterday after having enough of the previews I decided to take matters into my own hands.  I was going to compile the statistics I wanted.  But not only did I want team statistics (which are easily findable) I wanted to have a way to measure those statistics against what their opponents were doing.  That took a lot more work (I stayed up WAY too late last night doing this) but here is the fruit of that labor:

Now I’d better explain these numbers.  The opp. (opponent) number reflect the opposite of what you might think.  The goal is to compare how Cal (or Oregon) did against that team, not how that team did in it’s own right.  So the numbers are flipped.  Points per game in the opponent section reflects how may points per game the opponent gave up, not how many they scored.  Or said another way, the defensive numbers are in the offensive section and the offensive numbers are in the defensive category.

What this does is make it so that you can see how Cal (or Oregon) did in relation to what the team they were playing usually allowed.  So (and I’ll get to color coding next) you’ll see that I highlighted the Cal opp box for Points per game because Cal’s opponents were giving up less points per game than Oregons, which makes Cal’s ability to run up the score, although not as absolutely high as Oregon’s, a little more impressive.

Get it?  I sure hope so, I spent all last night working on it.

OK, onto color coding.  Basically, blue highlighting is for those areas that I think reflect well on Cal, Green is for those areas that reflect well for Oregon and yellow is for those opponent fields that illuminate something about the relative difficulty of Cal or Oregon’s opponents to date.

Get it?  Well, it doesn’t really matter.  The numbers are there so you can make your own conclusions.

What are my conclusions?  Good question.  And for that you’ll have to wait for my Cal vs. Oregon preview that I’ll post tomorrow.

OK, maybe I shouldn’t be complaining about the early start time.  Apparently it was just enough to throw off the usually unstoppable at home (hasn’t lost since 8/1/2005) Johan Santana.

Way to go A’s!

Boy, I was looking over the matchups for later this week and was suprised just how many good matchups there are in the Pac-10.  Of course Cal vs. Oregon is top billing in my mind, but the rest are all intriguing:

• Washington at USC: Is UDub for real?  Is USC vulnerable?  If nothing else this means there will only be 2 undefeated in conference Pac-10 teams at the end of the weekend (along with the victor of Cal vs. Oregon).
• Arizona at UCLA:  Just how much does UCLA suck?
• WaZoo at OSU: Another battle to get out of the cellar.
• Stanford at Notre Dame:  OK, all but one game is intriguing.  Although historically Stanford has played ND tougher than expected.

Tune in late this week for my predictions.