OK, here are my picks for this Saturday.

Cal 35, USC 24: I know this is a bold prediction but I think it is right.  When I matched up the 6 common opponents (ASU, UA, UO, OSU, UW and WSU) and saw that USC gave up just as many points as Cal did against them but outscored USC by 50%, I was convinced that Cal should win this game.  Don’t buy into the “USC is back after the last two weeks!” crud.  Stanford is, well, Stanford and we demolished Oregon just as badly as USC did.  In fact, I though Cal did a better job against Oregon because Oregon shot themselves in the foot more often against USC.  So why should USC get credit for the ordering of their schedule to suggest they’re “peaking”?  Additionally when one looks at the overall picture of those 6 games, Cal’s advantage becomes more clear.  The only game where USC did a obviously better job than Cal was Arizona and there were 3 games in which Cal did substantially better (OSU, WSU and ASU).  There’s no reason to think that USC has an advantage in this one, particularly considering how well Cal has played USC during the Tedford era.  Expect a key pick from Hughes or DeCoud to be the difference maker.

OSU 33, Stanford 13:  It sounds funny to say, but I think Stanford is going to come out flat after their “big win” last week.  OSU will be looking for revenge after their big UCLA let down.  This game could get ugly in Palo Alto.

Arizona 17, Oregon 27: Watch out Oregon, this game could be trouble.  However, being at home and looking for validation after the loss to USC, expect Oregon to win this one in an ugly game.

UW 17, WSU 24: Both of these teams are sinking quickly.  WSU looked like a contender after the Oregon victory.  It’s been downhill ever since, losing to both mediocre Arizona schools.  Washington, minus the strong performance against Cal, has had the wheels fall off the bus without Stanback, culminating with the laughable loss to Stanford.  If I were a prune company, I’d be looking to get sponsorship rights for the “Apple” cup.  WSU prevails on the Frosen Potato Patch (not to be confused with the Frozen Tundra).

UCLA 24, ASU 27: This is probably the game of the week.  UCLA needs to win either this game or against USC to be bowl eligible and ASU wants to keep out of the Pac-10 cellar.  I think ASU is finally starting to put together some good football and will win this one despite it being close.

OK, tune in on Monday for updated metrics and my thoughts on the Cal vs. USC game.

Well, I was in such a groove when I last updated these metrics 3 weeks ago.  All of my metrics were going in the right direction and I was predicting almost every game’s outcome correctly.

What a fall from grace it has been.  Last week I didn’t call a SINGLE game correctly and I’m 4-9 in the last three weeks.  Basically, I had too much faith in Washington’s ability to win (who would have thought that Stanford’s first win would have been against UW…), just couldn’t bring myself to think that OSU was actually a good team and when I finally did, they let me down and frankly just can’t figure out ASU.  Sometimes they look like they’re gunning for Stanford, other times they look like they can compete with USC.

In any case, here are the updated metrics:

• MVD: 15.6 (up from 13.9 a few weeks ago with a number of beyond 30 scores)
• TPD: 12.7 (down from 12.9.  The only improved metric.)
• Winning percentage: 73.0% (down from 83.7 after going 4-9 in the last 3 weeks)

Just horrible.  Two of my metrics are now below their target (14 for MVD and 75% for wins).  I’ll be back on my game this week.

My latest article is posted on BearTerritory.net: Irresistible force meets immovable object

I covered the weekly press conference in Berkeley this week and my latest article is about Tedford and Carroll’s comments about the upcoming game:  Cal vs. USC: “Our players know what’s at stake”

Also, if anyone has any questions about specific players or the team I’d be happy to answer them.  With this new gig I’ve had chances to talk with Tedford, Hughes, Syd’Quan, Pimentel, Bishop, Longshore, DeSean and others.  I’ve been able to watch a few practices to see how they’re playing as well.

OK, all of the Cal blogs I’ve seen out there that look forward to next week point out that “as long as we beat Stanford”, the USC game will determine the Pac-10 champion.

WRONG!

At this point, the Big Game is meaningless. Absolutely meaningless.

We’re tied with USC in the Pac-10 standings with two games to go.  Because the winner of next weeks game will be one game up on the other and has the tie-breaker in the event of a tie with one game to go, there is no way the loser can overcome that loss.  If USC beats Cal and loses to UCLA they still go to the Rose Bowl.  If Cal beats USC and loses to Stanford (God forbid), Cal still goes to the Rose Bowl.  It’s as simple as that.

The Big Game is meaningless.  Absolutely meaningless.

“But wait… what about a three or four way tie?  Couldn’t that affect it?” 

Nope, because both Oregon State and Oregon lost yesterday, all Pac-10 teams outside of Cal and USC now have three or more loses and are at least two games back.  No other Pac-10 team can equal the Pac-10 record of both Cal and USC since for Cal and USC to be tied they’d both have to go 1-1 in the remaining games.  There will be no three way ties.

As I said, the winner of next weeks USC-Cal game wins the conference.

The Big Game is meaningless.  Absolutely meaningless.

“OK, OK, for the Rose Bowl it’s meaningless, but what about a free fall for either team?  Couldn’t the Bears fall all the way to the Sun bowl by losing both?”

Nope.  At this point Cal is guaranteed a post-season trip to Southern California for either the Holiday Bowl or the Rose Bowl.  Even if Cal loses both of their remaining games, they’d at worst by tied with teams that they beat, either Oregon or Oregon State.  Since Cal’s one loss is to Arizona who already has lost 4 conference games and are therefore 3 games back, they can not tie Cal with 2 games left.  USC interestingly enough, could still end up in the Sun Bowl if they lost out because they lost to Oregon State who could have as little as three loses if they win out and would have the tie-breaker.

So I guess the USC-UCLA game could have some meaning.  BUT…

The Big Game is meaningless.  Absolutely meaningless.

OK, so that’s it.  All the marbles are in the basket of next week.  Winner take all, loser takes second (with small caveat for USC above).

Any questions?

Thinking more about the Cal game, who else thinks a big part of Cal’s problem the last few weeks is that they’ve been playing not to lose instead of to win?

Let’s hope so because next week that won’t be a problem.

Well that stinks.  Before all the Arizona fans out there get on their high horse: you guys didn’t deserve to win the game either.

Anybody else extremely disappointed by the officiating?  Both of those defensive penalties that negated the Cal interceptions were completely bogus calls.  The game hinged on that drive as well because part of the reason Longshore forced that pass that was run back on the ensuing drive was because the game was now tied.  If Cal had gotten the ball of either interception and was up 17-10, Longshore would have continued to be overly conservative and not throw a pass like that.

Overall, I was disappointed with Cal’s inability to stretch the field.  They should have been throwing the ball long more often.  The plays were there, Longshore had the protection, he just kept throwing the underneith routes.

I was pretty happy with the defense.  They mostly kept Arizona in check particularly considering that 10 points came off of turnovers and an additional 7 were allowed because of bogus penalties as mentioned above.  Only giving up 7 “real” points is pretty good.

Yeah, the mistakes in this game were just killers:

1. Longshore’s 2 interceptions
2. Block in the back penalty on Marshawn TD run
3. Hawkins trip that left him short of TD
4. Inability to score TD from 1st and goal at the 1.

Then the bad luck didn’t help:

1. Longshore’s 3rd interception
2. DeSean being out by 1″ on go-ahead TD
3. Two ridiculous penalties on interceptions

The good news is just like the USC loss to OSU, this loss doesn’t mean anything (unless Oregon beats USC tonight in which case the loss means everything).

I’m sure my article at BearTerritory.net will be published shortly (I submitted about a 1/2 hour ago).

More tomorrow. 

I’m going to try and write more details on my predictions later tonight but right now I just want to make sure my scores are posted so I can keep the metrics rolling in case I can’t get around to it.

• Cal 34, Arizona 13
• Stanford 10, Washington 26 
• Oregon St. 31, UCLA 24
• WaZoo 28, ASU 20
• Oregon 34, USC 28 (upset baby! Rose Bowl for Cal!)

My weekly statistical preview of the upcoming Cal game is now posted at BearTerritory.net:  Will the real Arizona please stand up?

I interviewed Steve Levy at Tuesday’s practice.  Here’s the article: Levy: ‘I think I’ve Still Got A Little Left In Me’