Sorry things have been slow here on the Cal Bears portion of my blog.  For those who read my full blog they’ll know that I had a fair amount of election stuff this last week.

I will have the following posts in the next couple days:

• Updated metrics
• Pac-10 predictions for this weekend including detailed Cal analysis
• Reports on being a new member of the press and in the press box for the UCLA game
• Insight on going to Cal practice on Tuesday

Sorry I didn’t write much this week.  I had the flu, my laptop died and critical prototypes arrived at work.  I was working like dog while my head throbbed and at the same time completely clueless lacking all the data on my laptop (thank God for the eventually restored backups).

But to make sure I don’t break my predictions statistics, here is a one-liner for each game this Saturday:

• Cal 45, UCLA 13.
• Oregon 31, Washington 24
• ASU 28, OSU 24
• WSU 24, Arizona 10
• Stanford 6, USC 35

More next week.

It’s that time of the week again, time to predict which Pac-10 teams are made of men and which are made of girrrly-men.

OSU 10, USC 28: OSU has been the team in the Pac-10 that occasionally comes up from the depths to steal a win from one of the better teams.  This year that game was against Washington.  The problem with this trend is that many over-rate the importance of the upset and think the victim is far weaker than they are and OSU is stronger than they are.  Nope, it’s just an unlikely upset.  However, USC should be thankful because now that OSU has used up their upset mojo, this game will be a safe win.  USC’s fairly strong defense will shut down the mediocre OSU offense.

ASU 17, Washington 20:  This is the game of the week that everyone should be watching on… what channel is that going to be on?  Oh yeah, on FSN but only in Seattle and Arizona.  Nice.  In any case, if this game was in Arizona I might have a different prediction but ASU is known to play poorly under pressure.  Washington seems to have lost little with Stanback on the sideline so I expect them to win this one.

WSU 24, UCLA 10: UCLA is so weak this year.  They’re not going to be ready for the WSU defense, a defense that is good enough for me to drop the WaZoo from WSU’s name.  WSU proved last week that they’re going to be able to win the tough games by generating some offense.

Oregon 42, PSU 10: Oregon needs to get back on track with their season defining game against Washington coming up next week.  PSU provides them the perfect opportunity to work on their timing and get back in sync after being man-handled by WSU.

OK, with 3 Pac-10 teams on a bye (Cal, Arizona and Stanford) it’s a slow Pac-10 week.  Expect an article from me about what to watch for in the UCLA game with them coming to Berkeley next week on bearterritory.net later today.  Of course check back on Sunday for updated metrics.

My latest article is now posted:

Where does Cal need JC help?

One of the disadvantages of writing a column is that it doesn’t provide the opportunity for random thoughts.  You’ve got to have a story line.  Since the whole reason I started writing about the Bears was so that I had an outlet before my head exploded from internal commentary pressure syndrome, I’ll make sure I keep putting those comments here:

• Cal ran a play about 5 times yesterday that I hope never gets used again.  It was a formation with 3 recievers close to the linemen.  The idea, at least I assume this was the idea because the play was never successfully run, was to use them as extra blockers to spring the running back around the outside.  It never worked.  All it did was get all the right defenders close to the line and in the perfect place to blow through the weak blocks of the wide recievers and drop the running back before he could even get started.
• We shouldn’t overlook the 4 interceptions in that game.  It was the only thing that kept the game close enough for Cal to get back in it.  Just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse for Cal, they’d grab a remarkable INT and save themselves from utter self-destruction.
• What ever happened to the trick plays?  Outside of one very successful reverse, Cal mostly has gone away from the trick plays this year.  While I think that many teams over use them, I think Cal has gone away from them too much.
• I’m pretty sure that I should be concerned that the only Cal player to catch a ball in the endzone was Damien Hughes on his INT.
• In the last few weeks we’ve heard various complaints from some about why Marshawn Lynch won’t just nut it up and play with his boo-boos.  I’m pretty sure this week will be the end of that.  Despite being visibly hurt and seeing some tackles force him to his knees he still came out and carried the team on his back.
• Schneider is one awesome field goal kicker.  The 50 yarder he missed was pretty close and the one he got was straight down the center.  Plus he hasn’t missed a extra point all season and God knows he’s had plenty to miss.
• This was a game that proved the value of winning the time of possession game.  Just when it looked like Cal was about to put the game away, all the time the defense spent on the field in the first half caught up with them allowing Washington back in the game.  I think their ability to dig deep late in the game was remarkable and really is what most deserves praise.
• There is no question why DeSean Jackson is a wide reciever not a tight end.  On that busted half back play that Lynch turned into a wild near TD run, the reason it was a near TD run was because DeSean couldn’t fullfill his promise to Lynch to block for him.  It was down right hilarious to see Jackson vigorously waving his arms for Lynch to come his way and when he did, the defender blew right by Jackson untouched to force Lynch to cut back and get tackled before he could reach the endzone.
• Speaking of vigorous waving, Cal’s last field goal was setup by Longshore’s inability to follow similar waving.  On third and 5 he had a lane to the first down marker and Lynch was waving that he’s block for him.  It would have been an easy first down with Lynch blocking.  Instead Longshore threw a wounded duck pass to the outside receiver that didn’t have a chance to be caught to get a first down had it been caught.
• Back to good plays, it came as no surprise to me that when watching the review of the hail mary the only player who made an attempt at tackling the receiver after he caught the ball was Damien Hughes.  He nearly got the receiver down too and it would have ended the game right there.

That’s all the random thoughts I had for now.  Anybody else?

My next article about the Cal vs Washington game is now posted at bearterritory.net.  Go check it out.

Why is it that refs have such a hard time with which side of the coin is heads and which is tails?

At the game I was very confused by the overtime coin toss.  The Washinton player called heads, the result was a tails (or so the ref said) but it was Washington who got the coveted choice from the coin toss.  What gives?

Well it appears from now reviewing the television coverage that the ref had to spend 15 seconds figuring out that the side of the coin that was up was indeed the heads.  Of course us fans had already cheered for the tails and moved our focus elsewhere.

I just don’t get how a person can say: “OK, this is heads (shows head side of coin to players).  This is tails (shows other side of coin to players).  What do you call?” then flips the coin in the air after the call and three seconds later can’t figure out if the coin in his hand is showing heads or tails?

I mean, OK, I know that they’re often using special coins that aren’t like a quarter or the change we are used to but THEY JUST LOOKED AT IT and verified which side is heads and tails.  I think they need to add a class at ref school for this.

I’ve been very impressed with Syd’Quan Thompson’s dramatic improvement over the season.  I think he’s going to be a great cornerback for Cal, the Washington game was a step back for him.  I saw a number of plays where his blown coverage kept drives alive:

• In the first quarter the ghosts of Tennessee were on the field when he over-persued a ball and missed the tackle turning what should have been a 4th and 5 into a first down.  All he had to do was make the tackle and Cal would have got the ball back.
• His blown coverage resulted in that late 2nd quarter TD.
• In the 4th quarter on another 3rd down he released his receiver to the safety to cover the flat when there was no one in the flat and the safety wasn’t in position yet.  Another first down.
• In OT, the near TD pass that was stopped at the 7 got as many yards as it did because Syd wasn’t watching the play and was blindly following his reciever on a clearing route.

In fairness to Thompson, he did use his speed for the 2nd week in a row to prevent a big run play from turning into a TD, so it’s clear that he’s an asset to the team.  I was just disappointed that he had one of his worst coverage week since the Tennessee debacle.

I’m sure he’ll get back on track after the bye week.

Not only is the Pac-10 ensuring that a number of Pac-10 games aren’t on TV with their contract with FSN but they’re also allowing FSN to continue its crappy coverage.  After going to the game I reviewed the TV coverage later last night and noticed so many bad calls I wondered how those announcer keep their job.  Here are 3 notable examples:

• There was a fumble in the 1st quarter by Washington that allowed Washinton to advance the ball for a first down.  Even though the ref mentioned it over the intercom, there was no mention of it on the TV coverage.
• The 50 yard field goal attempt that Schneider missed was plently long but wide-right.  They called it short.  It had more than enough distance.
• On Washington’s final TD drive they said that Hampton managed to tip a ball when in fact it was just a dropped ball.

It’s not that I expect them to get the call right the first time (although I do expect them to be fairly good) but they need to be watching their monitors and correcting themselves when they make a mistake.  But they don’t, they just go with their bad calls as if nothing was wrong. What a joke.

I have a hard time tooting my own horn on my prediction abilities when I so drastically underestimated Washington.  Two things I need to remember in the future:

• Other teams have bad weeks too (Wash vs. OSU) that make them look deceptively bad.
• Not all backup QBs are Ayoob.

Nevertheless, I did still predict 4 of the 5 winners and was correct in being hesitent in the 5th pick.

As for the shape of the Pac-10, it just officially became a 2 horse race.  Oregon’s loss to WSU pulls them back into the middle of the group.  Now, not only are Cal and USC the only conference undefeated teams, they’re the only ones without 2 losses.  Additionally, with the exception of USC vs. Oregon, both Cal and USC have played all of the more difficult teams in the Pac-10 (WSU, Oregon, Washington and ASU).

For the rest of the Pac, WSU is looking to be the team to beat for 3rd place.  They’ve only lost to Cal and USC (and having put up respectible struggles).  The three teams likely to challenge them for that spot are Oregon, which just lost to them, Washington and ASU.  ASU is still the wild card of those 4 teams as they’ve only played the best of the league (USC, Cal, Oregon) and the worst (Stanford).  I suspect they’ll beat Arizona and OSU but their games against the Washington teams will define their season.

UCLA could in theory bring itself up into the above group but since they have yet to play Cal or USC, I think they’ll fall below most of them.  They seem to be about equal with OSU.  Finally the bottom of the Pac is still Arizona and Stanford.

Here are my final projected standings:

1. Cal 9-0
2. USC 8-1
3. WSU 7-2
4. Oregon 6-3 (loses to USC)
5. Washington 4-5 (loses to WSU and Oregon)
6. ASU 4-5 (loses to UW and WSU)
7. UCLA 3-6 (loses to USC, Cal, WSU and ASU)
8. OSU 3-6 (loses to USC, ASU, UCLA and Oregon)
9. UA 1-8 (doesn’t win again)
10. Stanford 0-9 (finishes 0-12 for first time in history)

There are a lot of interesting matchups yet, but I think the list helps define which matchups are likely to affect the final standings.  From my predictions of it, the Pac-10 will have 6 bowl eligible teams.  If UCLA could have pulled the upset on Saturday against ND and OSU had been able to beat Boise St., the number could have been as high as 8.

In any case, here are my updated metrics:

• MVD: 13.9 (even from last week with new scores of 25, 12, 8, 16, 7)
• TPD: 12.9 (down from 13.1 with new scores of 11, 18, 6, 14, 7)
• Winning percentage: 83.7 (down slightly from 84.1 after going 4-1 again)

Tune in later in the week for updated predictions.