I’ve done my analysis of each of Cal’s opponents this upcoming year and am prepared to show off my prognostication skills by doing my very early prediction of each of Cal’s games.  I’ll even give you scores!

Cal 38, Tennesse 30: In a game that was not as close as the final score, Cal is able to rebound from a handful of painful defensive mistakes.  Unlike last year, not all of those mistakes go for touchdowns, but do result in about 13 unearned points.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears down by as much as 10 early in this game, depending on when the defensive mistakes happen, but as the defense settles down, Cal’s offense, which is strong all game long, wins the day. The crowd is a huge factor both in getting the Cal players pumped up and helping them rebound from their defensive mistakes.

Cal 42, Colorado St. 16: In a game that is reminiscent of the mid-2006 season, Cal wipes the floor with a Mountain West team that continues in its struggling ways.

Cal 31, Louisiana Tech 20: In a game that is never in doubt, but one where Cal looks surprisingly vulnerable, Cal manages to win despite looking shakey.  Despite the fact that there was no reason to think Louisiana Tech would put up any more of a fight than Colorado St., Cal looks like they may have taken them for granted and was looking forward to their revenge game against Arizona the following week.

Cal 23, Arizona 13:  In a generally low scoring game, Cal manages to get their revenge for the 2006 upset over the now 2-2 Arizona Wildcats (their other loss to BYU).  Generally, the Cal defense looks the best it has all year as the Arizona offense continues to struggle in Berkeley.  On the downside, the Arizona defense continues to keep the Bears in check and the game is closer than Cal fans feel comfortable with.

Cal 31, Oregon 24: Cal will similarly demoralize the Oregon Ducks like it did in 2006 and will lead this game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter.  Unlike 2006, Oregon who already has one loss to Michigan and a tight game versus Fresno St., with its fans behind it, manage a strong 4th quarter with two TDs to end with a respectable score.  Nevertheless, the game will have a “Cal-Tennessee blowout” feel to it and Cal will get lots of props for the big win and will be rising in to the polls, into the middle of the top 10.

Cal 17, OSU 12: In a highly billed and nationally televised Pac-10 showdown of undefeated teams, a defensive struggle that is frustrating to Cal fans for it’s lack of offensive fire-power, results in Cal squeeking out a victory in a game where it scores fewer times than its opposition.  Despite the fact that OSU came into the game undefeated because of upset wins over ASU on the road and an over-rated UCLA at home, Cal’s defense proves too confusing for OSU’s young QB.  On the plus side, the victory can be given to the stout defense that kept OSU out of the endzone including an important mid-4th quarter goal-line stand that will have OSU fans questioning why their beloved Beavers didn’t go for it on 4th down with that little time left and the potential to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion.  Cal’s ability to beat an undefeated team catapults it into the Top-5.

Cal 45, UCLA 31: In a high scoring affair, Cal FINALLY wins one at the Rose Bowl upsetting the biggest home-field advantage for a Pac-10 matchup (neither road team has won this game since 1999, a 17-0 Cal/Holmoe (go figure) win in LA).  The game ends up being the death-noll for a UCLA team with high expectations, it being their 3rd loss of the season (BYU and Oregon St. being the other two), as they sink into mediocrity despite having beaten Notre Dame at home the week before in a revenge game for them after the 2006 collapse in South Bend.

Cal 24, ASU 31: While it pains my to write it, I think Cal is going to lose one of the Oregon, UCLA or ASU games.  They’re luck just won’t hold for all 3 road games.  I’ve got to think ASU, with a new head coach leading the way, is the one that is going to pull it off.  It’s the 2nd of two tough road games back to back for Cal and  ASU has an ax to grind against a Cal team that has abused and embarassed ASU for multiple years in a row.  Cal goes into the desert with too much confidence and loses their first game to a quickly rising in the polls 7-1 ASU team, at the same time sending Cal reeling in the polls because in the end, the pollsters really have no respect for the Pac-10.

Cal 27, WSU 10: In another game noted as a defensive struggle, but one where the score is never all that close, WSU continues their downward spiral into the Pac-10 basement at 2-7, only above Stanford.  The younger Mixon brother, Terry, regrets the decision to go north instead of playing for his older brother’s school.

Cal 20, USC 21: In one of the biggest heart-breakers in Cal football history, undefeated USC comes into Berkeley and beats the Bears in a very, very tight game.  Cal will make one too many mistakes in a game where it was clear that Cal could have won, similar to 2004 down at the Coliseum, but just didn’t play consistently enough to get the job done.  USC continues on as the #1 school in the country on their way to a national championship.  Nevertheless, Cal holds onto a low teens poll spot because of the tight game that has pundits around the country saying good things about Cal, despite the loss.

Cal 38, UW 13: Poor UW.  They’re wallowing in misery late in a disappointing season with very little talent.  They’re very much like the 2005 Stanford team that managed more wins than anyone expected through discipline and good coaching.  Nevertheless, although they’ve managed 4 wins (Syracuse, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford) and still had a shot at a bowl game coming into their home game against Cal, there is just too much talent on the visitor’s sideline and they go down fast and easy in the first half, ending their bid at bowl eligibility.

Cal 37, Stanford 6: Stanford gives up their last shot at a Pac-10 win early in this blowout of epic proportions giving Cal its 6th Big Game victory in a row.  In the end, Cal’s desire to impress the Rose Bowl committee combined with their superior coaching and talent were too much for Stanford despite their determination to get a conference win before their season comes to an end.  They end the season 1-11, their only win being an uncomfortably close home game against San Jose St. in week 2.

Cal 21, Michigan 24: In their first Rose Bowl since 1959, Cal comes up short, despite “sneaking” into the spot via USC going to and winning the National Championship game.  The joy of being in their first Rose Bowl was too much for this Cal team to keep their focus through and although capable of a win, the Bears didn’t come with their ‘A’ game.  The loss was to Michigan, not Wisconson as many pundits suggest because, just like many overhyped “alternative” Big-10 teams, they couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan, finishing the season 10-2.  Ohio St. loses a couple of painful games to Penn State and Michigan to put them out of the running despite their powder puff non-conference schedule with Youngstown St., Akron, Kent, and their only non-conference opponent with anything resembling teeth, Washington.

OK, that wraps it up.  The key thing to remember is that the Bears go 10-2 (3 with the Rose Bowl loss), losing to USC and one of UCLA, Oregon or ASU on the road, while beating Tennessee and make it to the Rose Bowl by USC making it to the National Championship game.  Just remember, you heard it here first.

Well, now that all the important parties know, I can make a blog announcement:

God has blessed my wife and I with another baby growing (as I like to call it “baking”) inside my wife.  We are of course praying that it is a healthy pregnancy, one that will result in a healthy baby born later this year.  The current due date is December 8th, but we’ll get refinement on that in a few months when we do an ultra sound.  While it doesn’t really matter, I’m praying for a December 12th birth, the feast day of Our Lady of Guadalupe.  Of course there is nothing wrong with a birthday of the feast of the Immaculate Conception on December 8th either, nor any day in between for that matter.

Thanks be to God!

 

I’d like to give a heart-felt thanks for Rose Bowl Before I die (RBBID) listing my blog as the 6th best Cal football blog.  He also says that he would have ranked me in the top 3 had it not been for the “Rivals falloff” that caused this blog to suffer last year.  Which to me is a very generous statement.  Between particularly Tightwad Hill (#1), the California Golden Blogs (#3) and Cal Golden Bear Football News (#4) as well as the not to be mentioned here #2 blog, to think that this blog’s content has been good enough in the past to bump two of them off, well, it’s very humbling.

So thank you for both the #6 ranking and for speaking so well of the blog’s potential.

While we’re on the subject of ranking Cal blogs, I want to remind everyone that I update my list of Cal blogs I link to every fall just as the season is starting.  There will be some changes this year as some blogs have unfortunately gone out of business and some new blogs have proven themselves worthy of inclusion.  As a additional reminder, I take which blogs I link to very seriously.  There are those sites out there that’ll post a link to just about any blog they know of, and while that is a fine way to go about it, it has the downside of the list getting so long it is meaningless and hard to find the good needles in the haystack.

Here are the criteria I use:

1. Moral content: The #1 thing to prevent your blog from inclusion on the list is any content that is morally offensive.  The most common example of this is frequent swearing and why the #2 ranked blog does not and will not get a mention here unless one particular poster cleans up his language.  Does it really add anything to a post to say a player is f-ing pathetic?  Find better words to describe yourself.  Other examples include any suggestions of violence against anyone, this is college football not a war, or personal attacks against players or coaches beyond just their capabilities on the football field.  It’s OK to say that Joe “Booya” Ayoob is the worst player to ever grace the Cal sideline and Tedford is a complete coaching moron to have let him stay behind center for as long as he did (even though I’d disagree), but to say you want to rip out his bowels and force-feed it to Tedford crosses the line.  Finally, I expect the comment sections being in line with my moral standards and that the comments of the blog’s author on other blogs meet the standards as well (one blogger in particular suffers from this problem).  For the comment sections, I don’t expect one to moderate to the degree that all comments meet my moral standards, but that truly, wildly objectional comments are deleted and somewhat to moderately objectionable content is somehow rebutted/chastized.
2. Frequency of posting: I’m only going to link to blogs with somewhat regular posting.  Generally that means at least a couple posts a week during the season.  I’m not too concerned with off-season posting but someone who is consistent all the time gets extra props.
3. Quality of posts: What this means depends on what your blog is trying to accomplish.  If you’re just trying to report news, I’m not going to hold it against you that you don’t have detailed analysis.  At the same time, if your goal is news and you’re always a week behind everyone else, well, that’s not very good news.  On the other hand, if you’re a game-analyst type guy, I’m not going to hold slower posting against you, but I do expect that your analysis is meaningful.  Generally what this means is if when I go to your blog, do I find something worth reading?
4. Longevity: I generally like to see that a blog has been around for atleast a year before it gets the nod.  This is partially to give me time to judge based on the above criteria and also because lots of bloggers drop off within a month or two of blogging.

If you don’t care if you get a link on this blog, that’s fine.  But if you do, those are the criteria I judge by.  Consider this post a good place to put your blog’s URL so that I can see if it is one I want to include in the fall.

We heard about the Colorado St. game getting picked up by CSTV about a month agon and now we have the preliminary ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 schedule for the Bears.  The short answer for the Bears is that both the Tennessee game and the USC game will now be at 5:00 PM and that the Tennessee game will definitely be on ABC.  It’s being incorrectly reported in certain cirlces that the USC game will be on ABC as well.  While that is the likely case, it could still be on any of ABC/ESPN/ESPN2.  I suspect that’s what will happen if Cal or USC loses 3 or 4 games by the time the November matchup rolls around.

While we’re on the topic of TV coverage, since I’m sure I get a ton of readers from the Cal Athletic Office (har har), this whole “we’ll let you know the game time and channel 12 days, or in the worst case 6 days out” really sucks as a ticket holder.  I’ve got small kids that I take to the games and it makes life a lot easier to know what the game times are ahead of time.  I’ll take them to any game between noon and 5:00 PM for the start, but the late FSN 7:00 PM games are just too late for a 3 year old.  It would really be nice if you guys got rid of the whole “exclusive time blocks” crud that requires all of the game time manipulation.

Similarly, if I knew a road game wasn’t going to be televised more than a week or two in advance, I’d be tempted to arrange travel plans to go see the game in person.  But with that little warning, it’s much more difficult, particularly for places like Oregon where getting tickets can be difficult.

The reality is that there are enough channels these days for every Pac-10 game to be on every week.  There is no excuse for TV contracts that make it impossible for that to happen and require us fans to constantly be adjusting for changing game times and which cable/satalite package we need to watch all of the games.

Many people forget that a fairly large percentage of NFL players were undrafted.  After draft day, all the NFL teams go out and sign contracts with the guys that they like that didn’t get drafted.  In Cal’s case, 6 players signed free-agent contracts after draft day:

• Tim Mixon went to Seattle
• Nu’u Tafisi also went to Seattle
• Erik Robertson went to San Diego
• Marcus O’Keith went to Kansas City
• Byron Storer went to Tampa Bay (no word on whether Storer Buses will get the Tampa bus contract)
• Mickey Pimentel went to Carolina

To me, the most interesting pick-up was Marcus O’Keith.  This guy hardly got any caries stuck behind Marshawn and Forsett, so you’d think it would be hard for a pro team to justify his salary.  That said, I’m glad to see that someone besides me thought highly of him.  Every time he was in the game he impressed me with his determination despite being a backup.  You know he’s a team player as well because he never complained about being 3rd on the depth chart.  He’s probably the best college RB that spent his entire career 3rd on the depth chart.

(See the introductory post for background)

The first round robin of the Louis Vuitton Cup wrapped up over the weekend.  The great news is that the Oracle team is in 1st place.  They only lost one race, a tight one to the hometown favorites Desafio Espanol.  In that race, the Spanish got a great start, squeezed Oracle out, forced them to tack away on the first beat and managed to hang onto that lead for the rest of the race.  More importantly, Oracle beat both of the other favorites, Luna Rossa and Team New Zealand (TNZ) in their races, concreting their spot as the boat to beat in the LV Cup.

Go BMW Oracle!  Bring the Cup home!

For those who don’t know me well, my main sport is sailing.  I never played organized football in high school (and of course that means no college either), but I was one of the bay area’s best youth sailors.  I won’t bore you with my list of championships won as a teen, because the point of this post isn’t my accomplishments.  I’m just giving some background on the below post and follow up posts on the America’s Cup:

The Americas Cup is the superbowl of sailing.  It’s where the big boys go with their VERY expensive toys to prove that they’re the best.  The America’s cup happens every three to four years and the cost of a competitive campaign is around 200 million dollars.  Since sponsorship dollars can’t raise that much, most of the sydicates are owned by billionares like Larry Ellison (of Oracle fame) or Ernesto Bertarelli (a biotech billionare) or Patrizio Bertelli (of Prada fashion fame) and then supplimented by sponsorship dollars.

The America’s Cup dates back to 1851 when a US boat called “America” sailed to England and won a race around the Isle of Wright called the “One Hundred Guinea Cup”.  It then took the trophy back to the US and dared challengers from England to come take it back.  Over time, more countries became interested in winning the cup from the US.  With each successive victory, the cup more firmly established its name as the Americas Cup.  In fact, the winning streak of the US lasted 132 years (the longest sports winning streak ever) and 24 victories before the Austrailians won it in 1983.  In 1987, the next race after 1983, the US won it back, defended it twice in 1988 and 1992 before losing it to New Zealand in 1995.  New Zealand became the first country outside the US to successfully defend in 2000, in the first cup match that didn’t include a US team.  In 2003, New Zealand lost the cup to Switzerland.

Which brings us to the 2007 cup, currently going on in Valencia, Spain (nowhere to sail in Switzerland)…

The format of the America’s Cup is fairly complicated.  Unlike most boat races where there are lots of boats in the same race, the America’s Cup is what is called match racing.  There are only two boats in each race.  Furthermore, because one race isn’t very indicative of who the better boat is, there is a series of races, similar to how basketball and hockey have 7 game series to determine the winner.  In the America’s Cup, it’s a best of 9 series.

To add to the complication, more than one country is interested in challenging for the cup each time it is held.  Some times there is more than one challeger from a single country (Italy has 3 this time).  As a result, there is a long regatta held before the America’s Cup to determine who gets the right to challenge for the Cup.  That regatta is called the Louis Vuitton Cup.  For 2007 the format of the LV is as follows:

• There will be two round robins, where each boat races every other boat.
• At the end of those round robins, the top 4 teams (two points for each win in the round robins plus 1-4 points for seeding based on pre-LV Cup racing) will go to the semi-finals, a best of 9 series.
• The winners will race in the LV Cup finals, another best of 9 series.
• The winner of that series gets to race in the Americas Cup.

This year there are 11 challengers.  Only one of those teams is from the US, BMW Oracle Racing.  It’s funded by Larry Elison, CEO of Oracle and is sponsored by the Golden Gate Yacht club (each team needs a yacht club sponsor) in San Francisco.  Three different Bay Area yacht clubs (Golden Gate, St. Francis and San Francisco) have challenged for the Cup over the years and although they’ve come very close, they’ve never been able to win.  The Cup was always raced in New York during it’s first stint in the US for 132 years and was then in San Diego for its second stint.  If BMW Oracle were to win, the Cup would be brought back to the Bay Area for it’s next iteration in the 2011 timeframe.  For all Bay Area sailors, the idea of the Cup being in the Bay Area is very thrilling, and so we’ll all be rooting for BMW Oracle to win, as will most US sailors who want to see the America’s Cup back home.

Next up… the current LV Cup standings.

Here’s the final list:

• Marshawn Lynch: 1st round, 12th pick to the Buffalo Bills
• Brandon Mebane: 3rd round, 22nd pick (85 overall) to Seatle Seahawks
• Daymeion Hughes: 3rd round, 32nd pick (95) to Indianapolis Colts
• Desmond Bishop: 6th Round, 18th pick (192) to Green Bay Packers

Overall, I’m glad for those players because they all ended up on teams with either a tradition of winning or currently very strong.  In the end I thin the Bills and the Colts will be most happy with their picks long term, with perhaps the Packers getting the best deal of the bunch but it’s hard to say.

Neither Tim Mixon nor Mickey Pimentel were selected, which makes sense overall.  I’ve always thought Mixon was great, but I think college may be the top of the ladder for a guy of his size.  While he was a great shutdown corner against average WRs, he had a tendency to get burned against speedy recievers.  That was partially a speed issue and partially symtomatic of how he played, very agressively.

Finally, I think the numbers show just how good of a coaching staff is in Berkeley.  As I was scanning the list, I saw 3 instances of some college named “Stanford”, two in the 3rd round.  Obviously 3 guys don’t make a team, but nevertheless it is a sign that there is talent on that team.  Obviously the big schools out there like USC had far more than 4 players picked.  In other words, Cal is still ramping up on getting elite talent and to be in the position it is now, where two out of the last 3 years it has given the concensus best college football team of the decade a run for their money for the Pac-10 crown, is a sign of just how well coached Cal is.

In an number of recent articles I’ve linked to on this blog, the claim of the Catholic Church shrinking and dying is frequently errantly reported.  I usually make sure to correct them on that, but just so there is no doubt, here is an article about the growth of Christianity and particularly of those Christian denominations that actually have stuck to their beliefs instead of bowing to modern crap-theology.

One particular note about the article is that I thought understated the growth of the Catholic Church was the use of percentages instead of raw numbers.  It’s not hard for a smaller denomination like the Mormons and Assembly of God churches to grow 15+% over a decade because of their size.  The 15% the Catholic Church grew in the same decade is a HUGE number.  In fact, that 9 million additional people is more people than the entire population of any organized denomination in the US besides the southern Baptists, including the Mormons.  Said another way, if for some miraculous reason the Catholic Church was able to convince the Episcopalians, the Assembly of God, the Presbyterians AND the Pentacostals to join the Catholic Church, the Catholic Church still would not have grown as much as it did in the last decade.

I found this article about the lack of due process for accused priests very interesting.

One of the most overlooked aspects of the sexual abuse crisis in the Catholic Church is how to deal with priests who have been accused.  Of course, it goes without saying, that it is more important to first consider protecting children before one considers the issue of handling the priests.  However, that doesn’t remove our obligation to treat every human being with the dignity they deserve.  The reality is that even the worst criminals who are put in jail are still given a place to live (the jail) and food to eat.  So what do we do with priests who are accused to both protect our children while accepting that when the priest was ordained the Church took on the duty to provide for them?

I think it is a very difficult issue, one that I’m not sure the article did a good job of addressing.  Furthermore, I think it is important to note that we face the same issue in civil society.  When a crime merits refusing bail, we still take the freedom of that criminal away while they are still presumed innocent.  If they later are found not-guilty they get no more than an “oops” from the state despite the fact that the state took their life away from them for at least a year in most cases.  Similarly the complaints about feeling obligated to take early retirement feel a lot like a plea-bargain.  Often times they are done not to admit guilt but to find the most pain-free way out of a bad situation.  I’ve seen many articles in the news where the accused felt “forced” to accept a plea-bargain in a civil trial.

To some degree, it sounds like the current process within the Church has a similar format to civil courts.  There is an initial analysis/hearing to determine if there could potentially be any merit to the case, similar to an arraignment.  Then there is what is effectively a “preliminary trial” done by the diocese.  The final trial does not occur until the Vatican gets involved.  That all sounds pretty good.

However, there are three aspects of the current process that worry me:

1. The most troubling to me is the level of penalty the “preliminary trial” can assess.  Layicizing a priest doesn’t sound like a “preliminary” action.  While removing them from ministry and even notifying the public of that may be necessary for both safety and PR issues, denying that person their ordinational right while still awaiting the full trial seems inappropriate.
2. The next issue that exists is one that is addressed in US law that probably is missing from the Church canonical process: the right to a speedy trial.  I know it can take the Vatican years to get around to these types of trials, which is unacceptable if a man’s life is hanging in the balance.  It further makes the “preliminary trial” all to much like the final trial.
3. Finally, the housing and income of the priest.  I’m very concerned that they can be cut loose when guilt has not been conclusively determined.  I’m fine with forcing them to live at a retreat house or something similar, but denying them their Church income and telling them to go find their own means of living while they are still presumed innocent is unfair.

To some degree I am OK with the idea that the Church overshot in its initial reaction to the crisis.  It was an important time to make sure as many loopholes as possible were closed for those who were abusing our children and, as a result, robbing our money through the lawsuits brought against the Church.  However, it is important that over time the Church refine its processes so as to protect both the rights of our children and the rights of our priests who have dedicated their lives to serving God and the Church.

Hopefully articles like this can help the Church to continue in a prayerful and thorough analysis to determine what if any revisions of the norms need to be made.