Well it turns out that turning Ayoob around (as in headed for the door) was the best thing the Cal team could do. Levy was exactly the spark the team needed to win. In my opinion he did 3 things that were critical:

1. He had the right balance of determination and enthusiasm. I didn’t think about it much before now, but all of the interviews I’ve seen with Ayoob, he NEVER seemed excited. He always had this bored, disinterested persona. Not Levy, he’s both determined (i.e. not easily discouraged) and enthusiastic (i.e. gives a spark to the whole team).

2. He only threw one “ill-advised” pass. He was pretty good all day of not throwing the ball to bad spots.

3. He had great timing. He both threw the ball at the right moment (not late like Ayoob was always doing) and when the play wasn’t there recognized it early enough to run up field.

Was he incredible? No. But he accomplished two critical things: 1. He kept Stanford’s defense guessing just enough to add effectiveness to the run game and 2. didn’t cripple the successes of the running game by fumbling and throwing interceptions.

In other news about the Big Game, blogger Michael Cruz pointed out how much Bay Area media sympathies lie with Stanford, a belief I’ve always had, and considering the result of the game that thought is only reconfirmed. As much as I was happy with Levy, we would have won the game with Ayoob, it just may not have been 27-3. The reality is that Cal is a far superior team to Stanford and has been all season. But the media just loves to give too much credit to “The Cardinal” and to give as little credit to the Bears as possible. That’s the only reason that every Bay Area newspaper was talking about how much Cal had to lose and how much Stanford had to win while the betting sites were favoring Cal. That’s the only reason why no one was talking about who Stanford has choked all season against good defenses and Cal has arguably the best overall defense in the Pac-10.

Finally, can someone PLEASE explain the bowl situation to me? What I am told in the various newspaper articles discussing the subject, is that Cal could go to one of the 3 following bowls: Sun, Insight or Las Vegas which are the bowls for #’s 3 through 5 respectively. But the way I see it, there is no way Cal will fall to the #5 bowl. Right now Cal is 4-4 along with Stanford. The only other team in the same vicinity, Pac-10 record wise is ASU that is 3-4 right now with one Pac-10 game to play. If they win, they’ll be 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the Pac-10. We didn’t play ASU, but when it’s the case that a tie can’t be broken by head to head play(either because they didn’t play or because there are more than 2 teams without a concensus victor) the next tie-breaker is overall record. Isn’t Cal 7-4? What am I missing here?

Another note along those lines that isn’t getting any press, is that the Pac-10 could have as little as 4 bowl eligible teams if both Stanford and ASU lose next week which I think is fairly conceivable.

Well it’s that time of the week again. Time for me to pick the winners in this week’s games:

Cal 28, Stanford 13: Much is being made of the poor performance of Cal recently and the great performance of Stanford recently. But when you dig into what has ACTUALLY happened, a very different story emerges. The quoted stat is that Cal has lost 4 of its last 5 and Stanford has won 4 of its last 6. That’s all well and good, but it only reflects the nature of their schedules. 3 of those 4 loses for Cal comes from teams ranked in the top 12 in the nation. All one has to do is switch Stanford’s game against Oregon and ASU in their schedule and all of a sudden, Stanford has lost 3 of it’s last 4. Streaks don’t mean much, because they’re completely dependent on one’s schedule. Cal was 5-0 because each of the teams it played early were horrible. Stanford started 1-2 because it had UC Davis on the schedule… er… OK, it was Oregon. What’s far more important than the current streak is common opponents, of which there are 6: USC, UCLA, WaZoo, Arizona, OSU and Oregon. The short answer is that the only team against which the final result was different was OSU, where Cal lost at home 20-23 and Stanford won 20-17 on the road. OK, that’s definitely a point for Stanford, but when one considers Stanford was killed by Oregon 20-44 at home while Cal lost in overtime on the road, Stanford gave up 51 to USC while Cal only gave up 35 and Stanford barely squeeded out a 20-16 victory over Arizona while Cal crushed them 28-0 one can see why the comparison matchups don’t necessarily favor Stanford. With that in mind, I see Stanford as a team that, for the most part, has executed very well with minimal talent but is completely incapable of playing with the big boys and Cal as an underachieving team with the talent to win against the big boys, but with a serious QB problem. In fact, the only ranked team Stanford was competitive against was UCLA. I watched that game and it was quite clear that Stanford’s ability to hang in the game was because UCLA was in a deep funk and insistented on turning over the ball to Stanford at the most inconvenient times. Once the sleeping giant woke up and played football, even with the game at Stanford, it was no contest. Cal on the other hand gave UCLA the game of it’s life even in the hostile environment of the Rose Bowl. All of this just is a long way of saying that Cal is a better team and minus some bad QB play would be at least 8-2 if not 9-1 with just a minor improvement in that position. All Cal has to do is minimize the mistakes and they’ll win this one. Cconsidering that Stanford’s run defense SUCKS, Cal can win this game just by handing the ball off reducing the chance that our QB will sink us.

OSU 20, Oregon 31: OSU always comes to play in the “Civil war” game. I expect them to give Oregon everything they’ve got. Too bad that Oregon is just a better team even with its backup QB’s sharing time now that Clemens is lost for the season. Particularly with the game at Oregon, I expect this one to seem closer than it is but with Oregon handling the game for the most part.

Fresno St. 28, USC 48: Fresno is good this year and I give them a chance against any Pac-10 team, with the exception of USC. USC is just too good. I think the game will be close early with Fresno able to put enough points on the board to keep it close, but USC will control the ball in the 2nd half and running away with it.

WaZoo 24, UW 28: Talk about your toilet bowl. Who will escape being in the Pac-10 cellar by winning this game? WaZoo at 0-7 in the Pac-10 but with the better 3-7 overall record has to travel to Seattle to face 2-8 overall Washington who only has 1 Pac-10 victory. To try to figure out who was worse, I went and looked at their schedules. Boy, Washington’s schedule had a tough middle of the season: #6 Notre Dame, followed by #12 UCLA and #10 Oregon on the road, then #1 USC at home and back to ASU on the road. That’s about as rough as one could have it this season in the Pac-10. I’m sure their head was spinning so bad after that stretch that they didn’t even have chance to see straight against OSU at home two weeks ago. In any case, the real story in this game is that everyone has figured out WaZoo. After the WaZoo vs. Cal game where WaZoo was only in the game because of the long bomb, everyone realized that if you kept behind their wide receivers, WaZoo had no offense. Washington will have some confidence after beating up on Arizona last week and I expect them to win this one in the end. If we’re all lucky, it will include another 4th quarter colapse by the Zoo boys.

Well, that’s it folks as USC and UCLA have decided to buck the trend and play their rivalry game on Dec. 3rd and the ever trendsetting Arizona schools followed suit by scheduling their game for the 25th. Check in on Monday for updated metrics.

Wow, I didn’t think it would actually happen, but according to the SF Chronicle, Stevy Levy is going to get the start at the Big Game. Tedford is less stubborn than I thought.

Three cheers for Levy! We’re behind you!

Every once in a while a Cal football player comes along who deserves far more recognition than he gets, deserves more playing time and to be handed the ball more, yet he remains the ultimate team player. These class acts are few and far between. This Saturday we lose one of those class acts in Chris Manderino.

This guy was a great athlete as a freshman and has only gotten better every year. He runs great routes out of the backfield, has great hands, and if I need 2 yards up the middle, I’d hand it to Manderino every time. Additionally, he’s a great blocker. Cal has had great success running the ball for the last few years having a 1000 yard rusher in each of Manderino’s 4 years as fullback. I’m not an expert on stats, but somehow I doubt that’s ever happened before. Additionally, somehow I doubt that it’s a coincidence.

So let’s all raise a glass, or a cold one if you prefer, to one of Cal’s best kept secrets and class acts: Chris Manderino. Everyone in Berkeley will miss you. We wish you the best of luck and hope some NFL team is lucky enough to have you.

OK, I know that my blog traffic is minimal at best so creating two blogs doesn’t seem like a great idea on the surface. However, I’m thinking that I write about two VERY different topics. I write about my Catholic faith and the way I see the world as a result of that faith and I write about Cal football. Should I be splitting this into two separate blogs?

The reason this comes to mind is that although most of my posting to date has been Cal related, I’ve been thinking of upping my level of Catholic blogging. I want to write more reflections on the scripture of the day again. I don’t want this to put off those who come to my blog for Cal info.

So here’s a quick survey for all of my readers:

1. Would you visit my blog more often it it was more focused on the subject you’re interested in?
2. Do you think there would be some who wouldn’t visit if the two subjects continued to be intermixed?
3. For those who would be or might be interested in both sides, would having two blogs be a big inconvenience, or do you use an RSS reader?

Thank you to all who take the time to answer…

Well, I voted against Cal for the first time all season and it was a good thing I did! It was the only thing that saved me from a losing weekend. The only game I really blew badly was the Washington vs. Arizona game. Washington laid the wood to Arizona and the Arizona offense apparantly went back into hiding. For that game my MVD was 42 because, although the winner won by 17 like I predicted, it was the other team. Ugh! Other than that, I missed the Stanford vs OSU game but called it about right: a close game with scores in the mid 20’s. I just picked the wrong team to win.

OK, so here are the updated numbers:

-Winning Percentage: 70.2% (down from 71.4% last week)
-MVD: 14.6 (down (that’s good) from 14.7 last week with additions of 7, 42 (ouch!), 7, 8 and 8)
-TPD: 15.5 (down (that’s good) from 16.0 past week with additions of 21, 0, 15, 12 and 6)

Tune in later in the week for my rivalry weekend predictions.

Boy, THAT was painful. That said, I want to start off with the positives: Defense!

Our defense did a REALLY good job, all things considered. No one rushed for 100 yards, which is HUGE against the Lendale White/Reggie Bush combo. Also, every single yard that USC got was earned. There were only 2 or 3 25+ yards plays and nothing where a small play was broken into a big play. Cal forced a lot of 3rd downs. The only downside is that there were a lot of 3rd and shorts. But USC punted 4 times and this is one of those rare teams that can go multiple games without needing a punter. Finally, it did all of this even though Cal turned the ball over 6 times and let USC have nearly 37 minutes with the football.

Compare this performance against Notre Dame’s, the only other team to really keep them in check (34 points (a missed extra point is the difference): Reggie Bush rushed for 160 yards and 3 TD’s with a couple of long runs. Notre Dame also managed to keep the ball out of USC hands with a time of possession in the low 20’s (from memory).

So I was VERY happy with the defense. They did a great job against a VERY good team. My guess is that if Cal had held onto the ball and kept USC’s time of possession in the 20’s, USC’s final score would have been in the low to mid 20’s. For a team that is just one TD over their previous games from averaging 50 points a game, that’s pretty impressive.

Now onto the bad part. There is only one way to say this:

AYOOB SUCKS!!!

This guys is a horrible quarterback. His fundamentals are OK when there is no pressure, but that’s the extent of it. He makes horrible decisions, gets rattled easily, doesn’t handle the pass rush pressure well, and when he isn’t throwing “ill advised” throws, often throws passes that are best described as wounded ducks. If this weren’t enough, his biggest flaw of all is that he isn’t a big game QB. Ayoob is at his best when the game doesn’t matter. In those moments where everything is on the line, you can count on him blowing it for the team.

I was amazed that our run game was still able to get 180+ yards today including a 6.7 yard per carry average by Lynch. These guys had no running room because USC knew that the Cal passing game was a joke today. The only reason they didn’t put 11 guys in the box to stop the run was to make the game challenging for themselves.

I was one of those fans cheering for backup QB Levy to take the field in the 4th quarter. Ayoob has had his chance, I wanted Levy to get one. The guy looked reasonably sharp in his one other appearance at the beginning of the season. He looked pretty darned good in his two drives against USC. He was 4 for 4 and also knew when to run out of the pocket. In fairness, USC had it’s backups in and was playing prevent defense. However, Levy understood this and took advantage of what he was given. His passes were sharp, he made good decisions (the main thing I remember from his other appearance) and had very good composure.

The big question is who to start for the Big Game next week at Stanford. I must admit that I’m split. It is one thing to come in and do mop up duty a couple times in the season. It’s another thing entirely to start. I really don’t know Levy’s readiness, so I will defer to Tedford’s knowlege. I think he’s going to make the decision that is best for the team. My gut says start Ayoob and if he looks like he’s crumbling, switch to Levy post haste.

It’s that time of the week again. Time for me to prognosticate!

USC 42, Cal 24: For the first time this year, I’m picking cal to lose, and it’s not even close. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be screaming my head off from kickoff until it doesn’t matter any more cheering for the Bears, but the facts are the fact and the fact is that the Bears stink right now without a QB in sight.

Washington 17, Arizona 35: Boy, if there was ever a case where switching QB’s made a difference, Arizona is it. How else do you explain going from losing 16-20 to Stanford to beating UCLA 52-14? Washington continue to be able to break out of the low 20’s in score. The turned around Arizona team wins this one walking away.

Stanford 24, OSU 28: Stanford, Stanford, Stanford. What do you do with this team. The team loses to UC Davis, then beats ASU later in the season. The following week they take undefeated UCLA to the brink. Maybe Stanford isn’t that bad, eh? Well no. ASU is on the traditional Sun Devil slide as sunset gets earlier and earlier. UCLA was shown to be a bunch of posers last week by Arizona. Nope, Stanford is a mediocre team and are going to be suprised by a slightly better mediocre OSU team, who after all, is playing at home.

ASU 33, UCLA 35: UCLA will be out to prove something this week. ASU will continue their slide. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Oregon 35, WaZoo 24: A week ago I was unsure whether Oregon was going to be able to go up to the frozen potato patch and win a night game, particularly after losing their starting QB for the season and without a run game to speak of. After seeing both of the backup QB’s last week (why couldn’t Cal get one of those?) and seeing their game unaffected by the bad weather, I’m confident that Oregon will go up there and take care of business against a team with a six game losing streak who are no longer bowl eligible.

OK, that’s all she wrote folks. Tune in on Monday for updated metrics!

Well, not my best week again, but I’m glad to be wrong about the UCLA game. And the Cal game… I should have been right, if Cal actually decided to bring a QB.

In any case, here are the updated metrics:
-Winning Percentage: 71.4% (down from 72.9% last week)
-MVD: 14.7 (up (that’s bad) from 14.5 last week with additions of 11, 8, 49 (ouch!), 0, 12)
-TPD: 16.0 (up (that’s bad) from 15.2 past week with additions of 5, 36, 7, 20, 28)

Tune in tomorrow for predictions for this weekend!

I was at a wedding today, so I Tivo’ed the game. I managed to make it home without blowing the game result. As much as it was painful to watch the end of the game, I ‘m glad I did because I’m sure the wrapup articles will do a horrible job explaining what happened (as always).

This game came down to one thing: the lack of a QB on Cal. How is it we’ve got the 8 game veteran playing at QB and the never played a down before today QB for Oregon is the one who looks like the experienced one? Ayoob messed up so many ways:

-Threw 2 inexcuable interceptions, both as the Bears were driving and likely to get points. (the third wasn’t his fault)
-Fumbled the ball deep in our own territory giving the Ducks a free touchdown.
-Missed 4 long throws to open recievers who could have walked into the endzone if he had hit them.
-Missed a WIDE open (and I mean WWW… III… DDD… EEE…) reciever on 4th down in overtime.

Just about everyone else on the team did their job fairly well, but Ayoob sunk the team.

The reality is that this guy doesn’t have what it takes. His accuracy sucks, particularly deep down the field and when he’s running. He doesn’t have the mental poise to know when to throw and when to hold on to the ball. Although the interceptions are the more obvious case (where he should have held on to the ball), the reality is that he more often is too hesitant and doesn’t throw the ball at times when he has an open receiver.

The reality is that with a good QB, Cal is undefeated right now and next week’s USC game would be HUGE. As it stands, the question is whether Cal has a hope for the upset.

Finally, a big congradulations to Arizona for beating UCLA. Somebody FINALLY showed the world just how much of a poser UCLA. They should have lost to Cal and Stanford but because both teams joked, UCLA was considered a “great comeback team”. BS, they’ve just been lucky to play lots of teams that choke.
ARG!?!