Archive for September, 2005
Everyone who knows me knows that I love metrics to measure things. So here’s my past Pac-10 picks and their accuracy based on 3 metrics:
Margin of Victory Delta (average), MVD
Total Points Scored Delta (average), TPD
So here are my past picks:
(format is: my picks -> actual score: metrics)
Cal 56, New Mexico State 7 -> Cal 41, NMSU 13: MVD=21, TPD=9
Washington 17, Notre Dame 35 -> UW 17, ND 36: MVD=1, TPD=1
USC 42, Oregon 31 -> USC 45, Oregon 13: MVD=21, TPD=15
ASU 41, OSU 20 -> ASU 42, OSU 24: MVD=4 TPD=4
2 weeks ago:
OSU 20, Louisville, 24 -> OSU 27, Louisville 63: MVD=32, TPD=46
Cal 45, Illinios 20 -> Cal 35, Illinios 20: MVD=1o, TPD=10
UCLA 20, Oklahoma 24 -> UCLA 41, OK 24: MVD=21, TPD=21
WaZoo 49, Grambling 31 -> WaZoo 48, Grambling 7: MVD=23, TPD=25
Oregon 28, Fresno 20 -> Oregon 37, Fresno 34: MVD=5, TPD=23
USC 42, Arkansas 13 -> USC 70, Arkansas 17: MVD=24, TPD=32
ASU 35, Northwestern 17 -> ASU 52, NW 21: MVD=13, TPD=21
Stanford 38, UC Davis 10 -> Stanford 17, UC Davis 20: MVD 31, TPD=11
Arizona 14, Purdue 28 -> UA 24, Purdue 31: MVD=7,TPD=13
Washington 35, Idaho 24 -> UW 34, Idaho 6: MVD: 17, TPD=19
So, while I did a pretty good job of picking the winner, the victories were usually bigger than I expected which hurt both my margin of victory and toptal points scored. I was surprising accurate at getting the losers score.
We’ll see how I do this week! Tune in Monday for results.
So a friend of mine at work and I have been making picks for the Pac-10 games of the week for the last couple weeks. I figured I’d start making those picks more public so that Brian can pick on me and then be humiliated later.
Here we go:
USC 49, ASU 20: ASU is one of those teams that can light it up when it doesn’t matter but never seems to have the defense to win when it matters. The LSU game a couple weeks ago is a perfect example. Everyone remembers last year how they choked (and I mean CHOKED) against both Cal and USC. Expect the same this year against USC.
WSU 20, OSU 28: This is the game I’m least sure about. WSU, from now on referred to as WaZoo, has killed all of their opponents to date but when the strongest team on the list is Idaho, what does that tell us. They’re even more untested than Cal. OSU on the other hand has been beat around by a couple of good teams and pulled out a tough win against a under-rated Boise State. My gut says the battle tested team wins this one, especially at home.
Oregon 49, Stanford 17: This is probably the easiest game to pick if it weren’t for both the “redemption” factor and the crushing defeat factor. I’m not even talking about Stanford. Oregon doesn’t do well after a crushing defeat but somehow I think the UC Davis wannabees… er Stanford can have any motivation they want and still lose this game.
Arizona 13, Cal 38: This is Cal’s warm up game of the season. Yeah we’ve played powder-puff teams for 4 weeks but they week we only have to play a gravel-puff team. Cal may be a little slow out of the gate on this one, but runs (literally) away with it in the end.
Washington 13, UCLA 24: I so desperately want to call the upset here. UCLA’s ranking is all predicated on their big upset of Oklahoma but THAT’s all predicated on Oklahoma actually being an upset. People seem to forget that the only reason Oklahoma was ranked was because of pre-season hype. They’ve done literally NOTHING this season to justify any ranking. Washington on the other hand, looked fairly strong last week against Notre Dame. So this feels like an upset in the making. But, seeing as how Washington got spanked by Cal, my gut tells me Notre Dame is overrated and the game is at the Rose Bowl, I don’t see this being the week it’ll actually happen.
OK, I’m 12-2 to date (4-0 last week and 8-2 the week before (stupid Stanford and Oklahoma…))
OK, somebody got my humble blog in their comment spam list. Thankfully my spam detector is properly throwing them in the moderation queue, but I’ve gotten 40 in the last couple days.
My question is why they care to do this when they all get moderated. I know there desire is to up the number of links that reference them so that they’ll be elevated in search engines. But when those comments get moderated, they don’t accomplish their goal.
I guess they don’t check to see whether the comments get moderated.
How can you tell a baby has two of their favorite things to chew on in their mouth?
When they don’t freak out when you remove the first one.
I can attest to the truth of that one as recently as last night when I pulled the first, second and finally third fragment of paper from Andrew’s mouth.
Only 22 senators voted against Roberts for Supreme Court justice. Fienstien was one of them. The only reason she seems at all moderate is because the other senator from the state (Barbara Boxer) is so liberal that the Green party won’t take her if she decided to abandon the democratic party because it is being “taken over by conservatives”.
As all my Netflix friends know, I’ve had the same 3 movies for a long time. Well, we finally watched Coach Carter (it was alright, I guess) and I finally started watching the show Monk that so many people who’s opinions I respect liked.
It was REALLY good. I particularly liked the under-current about Monk’s disorder and people’s sympathy or lack of sympathy there of. I can’t wait to watch the 2nd DVD of the first season.
I’d like to thank the Oakland A’s for freeing up my weekend. I wouldn’t have wanted to spend the weekend watching/attending games when I think we all know would end up turning out the same way it did.
But you gave it quite a run and made an amazing turn around mid-seasion. Here’s to next year!
While there shouldn’t be any confusion where my primary college football loyalties lie, but ever since I’ve become Catholic, I’ve had a secondary affinity for Notre Dame football. Stories like this only reinforce this.
If my memory serves, Weis is a former Notre Dame player and from a generation where the majority of players were Catholic. I suspect he is Catholic as well. I think that will be good for the team both on and off the field. One of the things that I believe made the team strong in the past was their shared faith. Weis would do well to restore that legacy.
All I could say after reading this was… WOW!
For those too lazy to click the link, here’s the money quote:
“The only possible conclusion is that faith comes with a packet of moral imperatives that, while they do not condition the attitude of all believers, influence enough of them to make them morally superior to atheists like me. The truth may make us free. But it has not made us as admirable as the average captain in the Salvation Army.”
It’s very rare when someone is willing, particularly when it is amongst so many jabs, to make an admission like this no matter how much the truth stares them in the face.