Man, this MUST be the year that Cal got the short straw in TV coverage.  Not only will the road game versus Colorado St. be on CSTV, the Big Game will be on Versus.  It’s hard to say which is a worse TV package.  I know for me, I get Versus but will have to pay a package upgrade fee to get CSTV.  From the sounds of it, Versus is included in a lot more cable packages that CSTV.  On the other hand, if you’ve been reading my Americas Cup blog entries you’d know that Versus gets extra points from me for covering my beloved sailing events.  At the same time, CSTV at least is a channel that focuses on college sports unlike Versus which covers everything from sailing to the Premier Darts League and in fairness to Versus, playoff NHL hockey.

Speaking of which, every Cal fan really needs to read SFGate’s editorial about the Big Game TV deal.  Here are a couple of the highlights from it:

• “It televises the Louis Vuitton Cup, which is either a yacht race or a competition among airport baggage handlers.”  (Of course all my readers know it is the lead-up to the Americas Cup.)
• “The Versus series “Holy @#%*!” is not a religious program but rather a roundup of “snowmobile crashes, rodeo wrecks, bungee-jumping disasters and skydiving mishaps.” Stanford football highlights could be added to that mix, depending.”  (A well played shot if there ever was one)
• “Cal supporters should remember that the Big Game isn’t exactly a dream matchup for much of America, although some viewers might be drawn in by the Stanford Band’s halftime ‘Salute to Bungee Jumping Disasters.'” (Another good shot!)

Finally, although the Versus/Big Game deal makes the headlines, two other games got standard issue TV deals announced.  The game at ASU will be on FSN at 7:00 PM and the WSU game in Berkeley will also be on FSN at 7:00 PM.  Personally, I think I might revise my ASU game prediction with the new late start time… I think that works in Cal’s favor.

So, to sumerize, here is the current list of Cal Bear games on TV:

• Tennessee – 9/1 @ 5:00 PM on ABC
• @Colorado St. – 9/8 @ 11:00 AM on CSTV
• @ASU – 10/27 @ 7:00 PM on FSN
• WSU – 11/3 @ 7:00 PM on FSN
• USC – 11/10 @ 5:00 PM on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2
• @Stanford – 12/1 @ 4:00 PM on Versus

The Cal High Performance Center (HPC) that has been blocked in court pending a full trial that will review pending and more detailed seismic data, is looking good right now.  The Althletic Department released a press release yesterday saying that the new detailed seismic data confirms that there is no active earthquake faults on the building site.

This is really no surprise, but it’s nice to get the confirmation.

The other interesting tidbit in this VERY well written press release (it both makes the case of the University well while sticking to the facts and addressing common questions) is that it looks like the date of the trial will be pushed back from earlier expectations.  It was previously thought that the trial would happen in June or July yet the press release says “late summer or fall”, which means likely September or October (at least to me).  If I had to guess, the completion of the seismic review was a key piece needed to set a trial date.  Since it wasn’t released until effectively the beginning of June, I suspect that’s the reason for the delayed trial date.  If so, that’s a blow to the Athletic Department because the completion of that report was completely under their control.

In any case, since construction wasn’t going to start until the football season was over, it doesn’t much matter whether the trial is in the summer or fall, just that it’s all done before November 10th (the last home game), with the possible exception of the tree-sitters still having trees to sit in during the season.

In the end this is very good news and likely clears the way for the construction of the HPC.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if some back-room dealing is occuring right now between the University and the City of Berkeley and the Panaramic Hill Association (the big players in the lawsuit) to work out a compromise that avoids the court case entirely.  Now that it looks far less likely that the City can block the construction, they need to work out a compromise that protects their interests instead of losing out on everything they want by proceeding to court and losing.

Over on The California Golden Blogs (CGB) there has been a series of 4 posts (one, two, three, four) about last year’s Tennessee game and what was the cause of Cal’s demise.  Although I have my points of disagreement and generally think it’s trying to be too quantitative for something that requires a qualitative answer, it’s still very good analysis and worth reading.  Well done Hydrotech at CGB!

The guys over at CGB have a knack for finding something to blog about during this slow portion of the college football news.  Not to be outdone, I’ve got my blogging plan for June and July all worked out.  Here’s the teaser:

1. Re-review of each game last season with an emphasis on what it means for this season.
2. Coverage of the “Tree Hugger Trial” (date not yet known).
3. Predictions for every Pac-10 game, including non-conference matchups in 2007.
4. Improved online stat comparison tool (expansion of last years stats I provided).
5. A Pac-10 prediction game (similar to a “pick’em” league but with more ways to compare participants).
6. Re-design of visual layout of blog with a lot more data/info.

Make sure you keep tuning in on a regular basis!

(See the introductory post for background and these posts for my previous race updates)

Well, Oracle lost again, again unable to use their downwind speed to their advantage.  At least today Oracle got a pretty even start against Luna Rossa, although they were still about 15 feet back off the line.  The problem was that Luna Rossa was able to grow enough of a lead of about 100 feet by the time they reached the windward mark both through better upwind speed, particularly their ability to accelerate out of their maneuvers, and strong yet traditional tactics.

I had thought this before, but after today’s race it was confirmed.  If I had to pick between a boat that was fast upwind and downwind, I’d pick the fast upwind boat every time.  The issue is that in match race sailing it is VERY difficult to pass.  Since the first leg of the race is upwind, it’s the place where the initial leader is determined (along with the start).  So the faster boat upwind is much more likely to have a lead at the windward mark and it puts the boat that is faster downwind in a difficult situation because of the difficulty of passing downwind.

So Oracle is now down 1-3 (best of 9), and must win 4 of the next 5 to win.  They’d better find a way to get some upwind speed or tactical upwind advantage because they’re just not going to get it done with their downwind speed.

Well, I was always a little unsure about the whole ESPN Gameday crew coming to Berkeley based on the scout article considering their was no announcement from either ESPN or the University.  It turns out that I was right to be a little skeptical.  According to the new Cal Sports lead for the Contra Costa Times Johnathan Okanes, the Gameday deal is still in the works and could still fall through.

So, while there is still reason to be optimistic, the reality is that this is not a done deal and we shouldn’t bust out the champagne quite yet.  On the upside, it also means that the decision on a location for a Gameday visit is also yet to be made.  So if you have any suggestions, an e-mail to Sandy Barbour might result in a better location choice.

Finally, it’s interesting that Mr. Okanes thinks that a Gameday visit for the Cal vs. USC game is also a strong possibility, seemingly even if Gameday comes for the Tennessee game.  While I think a Gameday visit for the USC game is a real possibility, it’s only a possibility as an alternative to the Tennessee game.  I’ll bet my season tickets that Gameday isn’t coming to Berkeley twice in one season.

It is being reported by Scout that the nation’s biggest college football preview show is coming to Berkeley the week of the Tennessee game.  Supposedly there will be official announcements from the Cal Athletic department and ESPN “shortly”.

If true this is great news.  I’ve been hoping that Cal would get the respect of having Gameday in Berkeley and was disappointed when the 2006 Cal vs. Oregon game didn’t net a Gameday appearance.  The two locations most being discussed are Sproul Plaza down in the heart of campus and there is some discussion of Maxwell field, the artificial turf field right next to the stadium.  I must admit that I’d prefer Maxwell field over Sproul plaza, although I’d also like to hear discussion of the Witler Rugby field above the stadium towards Strawberry Canyon.  While Maxwell field will get a great view of the side of the stadium and the main entrance, Witler field, with a properly located and elevated platform could get a view of both the inside of the stadium and of the beautiful views of the Bay one gets from the stadium.

I’ll update this post with a link from the Athletic department when it is available.

RBBID linked to my post with 2007 Cal game predictions with the following comment:

 Over at Bear Territory, Ken has done a post spring practice Cal game prediction. I would say I agree with most of his analysis except for any game he picked us to lose. Also, he picks Cal to lose to ASU and USC and sneak into the Rose Bowl after USC goes to the National Championship Game. I am not sure Cal would finish high enough in the polls to get picked for a BCS game if it did lose two Pac 10 games.

First of all, I sympathize with their desire to predict all games as wins.  That said, I’m too much of a realist for that.  The reality is very few seasons result in a team being undefeated and it’s not practical to expect that of any team, with an occasional exception.  So, I sympathize, and it does indeed pain me to write that Cal gets beat by ASU, a craptastic team that doesn’t deserve the respect of that prediction, but I’ve got to think that Cal loses one of its tough Pac-10 road games and that’s my best guess as to which of the three it is.  As for USC, I hope that I’m wrong, but the realist/”Cal fan who lived through both the Gilbertson and Holmoe years” in me says that I’m not.

As for the 2 losses being too much for a Rose Bowl bid, with 3 losses last year Cal was just a couple of poll spots short of being BCS eligible and it was quite clear that the Rose Bowl wanted Cal if they were eligible.  2 losses puts Cal in the top-10 (I’d guess #8 with my predicted wins/loses) and that’s plenty high enough for a Rose Bowl selection.  Perhaps RBBID is thinking of 2004 when #6 (or said differently #5 plus Mack Brown) didn’t get Cal into the Rose Bowl, but what one can’t forget is that there are now 2 extra BCS spots with the BCS championship game being a separate game from the 4 BCS bowl games.  Those two extra spots change a great deal and allow the bowl game selection committees a lot more flexibility.  The Rose Bowl desperately wants the Bears.  They know that a Cal Rose Bowl will bring 49 years of waiting Cal fans out of the woodworks and it’ll be a popularity/financial windfall for them when they finally have the opportunity to pick Cal.

Cal would have been in the Rose Bowl in 2004 had the current BCS lineup.  Texas would have played in the Orange Bowl against likely either Georgia or Virginia Tech, since USC and Oklahoma wouldn’t have played their pathetic blowout game in the Orange Bowl but a week later in the separate “BCS Championship Game”.  With these new rules, a top-10 2nd place Pac-10 team will always play in the Rose Bowl if the 1st place Pac-10 team goes to the BCS Championship Game, particularly if Notre Dame isn’t BCS eligible (that’s my prediction for this year).

Now that I think about it, perhaps RBBID’s thought is that 2 losses doesn’t get Cal 2nd place.  Considering that I’m predicting USC to go undefeated (hence giving every other Pac-10 team at least 1 loss), I think 2 losses will be good enough for 2nd place, particularly if that loss is to ASU.  A big part of the reason I put ASU with one loss (to Boise St. edit: I meant Oregon St.) when they got to the Cal game is because their schedule is very tail heavy.  Because of a desire to keep a semblance of brevity (pause for laughter) I edited out the part of my ASU prediction where I said they then go on to lose at least 3 of their last 4 games (@Oregon, @UCLA, USC and Arizona).  Basically, assuming USC goes undefeated, for Cal to keep 2nd place with 2 losses, whoever Cal loses to has to have 2 other Pac-10 loses (3 total).  I’m confident ASU will, and think it is likely that either Oregon or UCLA will as well.  For my money, I think Oregon is the team most likely of the three teams to be trouble to take 2nd place away if Cal doesn’t beat them.

In any case, I’m not predicting a loss to Oregon.  I’m predicting ASU.  And at the same time I’m predicting ASU loses 3 of their last 4 to let Cal pass them by for 2nd place in the Pac-10 and a Rose Bowl bid.

Any other questions?

I’ve done my analysis of each of Cal’s opponents this upcoming year and am prepared to show off my prognostication skills by doing my very early prediction of each of Cal’s games.  I’ll even give you scores!

Cal 38, Tennesse 30: In a game that was not as close as the final score, Cal is able to rebound from a handful of painful defensive mistakes.  Unlike last year, not all of those mistakes go for touchdowns, but do result in about 13 unearned points.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears down by as much as 10 early in this game, depending on when the defensive mistakes happen, but as the defense settles down, Cal’s offense, which is strong all game long, wins the day. The crowd is a huge factor both in getting the Cal players pumped up and helping them rebound from their defensive mistakes.

Cal 42, Colorado St. 16: In a game that is reminiscent of the mid-2006 season, Cal wipes the floor with a Mountain West team that continues in its struggling ways.

Cal 31, Louisiana Tech 20: In a game that is never in doubt, but one where Cal looks surprisingly vulnerable, Cal manages to win despite looking shakey.  Despite the fact that there was no reason to think Louisiana Tech would put up any more of a fight than Colorado St., Cal looks like they may have taken them for granted and was looking forward to their revenge game against Arizona the following week.

Cal 23, Arizona 13:  In a generally low scoring game, Cal manages to get their revenge for the 2006 upset over the now 2-2 Arizona Wildcats (their other loss to BYU).  Generally, the Cal defense looks the best it has all year as the Arizona offense continues to struggle in Berkeley.  On the downside, the Arizona defense continues to keep the Bears in check and the game is closer than Cal fans feel comfortable with.

Cal 31, Oregon 24: Cal will similarly demoralize the Oregon Ducks like it did in 2006 and will lead this game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter.  Unlike 2006, Oregon who already has one loss to Michigan and a tight game versus Fresno St., with its fans behind it, manage a strong 4th quarter with two TDs to end with a respectable score.  Nevertheless, the game will have a “Cal-Tennessee blowout” feel to it and Cal will get lots of props for the big win and will be rising in to the polls, into the middle of the top 10.

Cal 17, OSU 12: In a highly billed and nationally televised Pac-10 showdown of undefeated teams, a defensive struggle that is frustrating to Cal fans for it’s lack of offensive fire-power, results in Cal squeeking out a victory in a game where it scores fewer times than its opposition.  Despite the fact that OSU came into the game undefeated because of upset wins over ASU on the road and an over-rated UCLA at home, Cal’s defense proves too confusing for OSU’s young QB.  On the plus side, the victory can be given to the stout defense that kept OSU out of the endzone including an important mid-4th quarter goal-line stand that will have OSU fans questioning why their beloved Beavers didn’t go for it on 4th down with that little time left and the potential to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion.  Cal’s ability to beat an undefeated team catapults it into the Top-5.

Cal 45, UCLA 31: In a high scoring affair, Cal FINALLY wins one at the Rose Bowl upsetting the biggest home-field advantage for a Pac-10 matchup (neither road team has won this game since 1999, a 17-0 Cal/Holmoe (go figure) win in LA).  The game ends up being the death-noll for a UCLA team with high expectations, it being their 3rd loss of the season (BYU and Oregon St. being the other two), as they sink into mediocrity despite having beaten Notre Dame at home the week before in a revenge game for them after the 2006 collapse in South Bend.

Cal 24, ASU 31: While it pains my to write it, I think Cal is going to lose one of the Oregon, UCLA or ASU games.  They’re luck just won’t hold for all 3 road games.  I’ve got to think ASU, with a new head coach leading the way, is the one that is going to pull it off.  It’s the 2nd of two tough road games back to back for Cal and  ASU has an ax to grind against a Cal team that has abused and embarassed ASU for multiple years in a row.  Cal goes into the desert with too much confidence and loses their first game to a quickly rising in the polls 7-1 ASU team, at the same time sending Cal reeling in the polls because in the end, the pollsters really have no respect for the Pac-10.

Cal 27, WSU 10: In another game noted as a defensive struggle, but one where the score is never all that close, WSU continues their downward spiral into the Pac-10 basement at 2-7, only above Stanford.  The younger Mixon brother, Terry, regrets the decision to go north instead of playing for his older brother’s school.

Cal 20, USC 21: In one of the biggest heart-breakers in Cal football history, undefeated USC comes into Berkeley and beats the Bears in a very, very tight game.  Cal will make one too many mistakes in a game where it was clear that Cal could have won, similar to 2004 down at the Coliseum, but just didn’t play consistently enough to get the job done.  USC continues on as the #1 school in the country on their way to a national championship.  Nevertheless, Cal holds onto a low teens poll spot because of the tight game that has pundits around the country saying good things about Cal, despite the loss.

Cal 38, UW 13: Poor UW.  They’re wallowing in misery late in a disappointing season with very little talent.  They’re very much like the 2005 Stanford team that managed more wins than anyone expected through discipline and good coaching.  Nevertheless, although they’ve managed 4 wins (Syracuse, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford) and still had a shot at a bowl game coming into their home game against Cal, there is just too much talent on the visitor’s sideline and they go down fast and easy in the first half, ending their bid at bowl eligibility.

Cal 37, Stanford 6: Stanford gives up their last shot at a Pac-10 win early in this blowout of epic proportions giving Cal its 6th Big Game victory in a row.  In the end, Cal’s desire to impress the Rose Bowl committee combined with their superior coaching and talent were too much for Stanford despite their determination to get a conference win before their season comes to an end.  They end the season 1-11, their only win being an uncomfortably close home game against San Jose St. in week 2.

Cal 21, Michigan 24: In their first Rose Bowl since 1959, Cal comes up short, despite “sneaking” into the spot via USC going to and winning the National Championship game.  The joy of being in their first Rose Bowl was too much for this Cal team to keep their focus through and although capable of a win, the Bears didn’t come with their ‘A’ game.  The loss was to Michigan, not Wisconson as many pundits suggest because, just like many overhyped “alternative” Big-10 teams, they couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan, finishing the season 10-2.  Ohio St. loses a couple of painful games to Penn State and Michigan to put them out of the running despite their powder puff non-conference schedule with Youngstown St., Akron, Kent, and their only non-conference opponent with anything resembling teeth, Washington.

OK, that wraps it up.  The key thing to remember is that the Bears go 10-2 (3 with the Rose Bowl loss), losing to USC and one of UCLA, Oregon or ASU on the road, while beating Tennessee and make it to the Rose Bowl by USC making it to the National Championship game.  Just remember, you heard it here first.

I’d like to give a heart-felt thanks for Rose Bowl Before I die (RBBID) listing my blog as the 6th best Cal football blog.  He also says that he would have ranked me in the top 3 had it not been for the “Rivals falloff” that caused this blog to suffer last year.  Which to me is a very generous statement.  Between particularly Tightwad Hill (#1), the California Golden Blogs (#3) and Cal Golden Bear Football News (#4) as well as the not to be mentioned here #2 blog, to think that this blog’s content has been good enough in the past to bump two of them off, well, it’s very humbling.

So thank you for both the #6 ranking and for speaking so well of the blog’s potential.

While we’re on the subject of ranking Cal blogs, I want to remind everyone that I update my list of Cal blogs I link to every fall just as the season is starting.  There will be some changes this year as some blogs have unfortunately gone out of business and some new blogs have proven themselves worthy of inclusion.  As a additional reminder, I take which blogs I link to very seriously.  There are those sites out there that’ll post a link to just about any blog they know of, and while that is a fine way to go about it, it has the downside of the list getting so long it is meaningless and hard to find the good needles in the haystack.

Here are the criteria I use:

1. Moral content: The #1 thing to prevent your blog from inclusion on the list is any content that is morally offensive.  The most common example of this is frequent swearing and why the #2 ranked blog does not and will not get a mention here unless one particular poster cleans up his language.  Does it really add anything to a post to say a player is f-ing pathetic?  Find better words to describe yourself.  Other examples include any suggestions of violence against anyone, this is college football not a war, or personal attacks against players or coaches beyond just their capabilities on the football field.  It’s OK to say that Joe “Booya” Ayoob is the worst player to ever grace the Cal sideline and Tedford is a complete coaching moron to have let him stay behind center for as long as he did (even though I’d disagree), but to say you want to rip out his bowels and force-feed it to Tedford crosses the line.  Finally, I expect the comment sections being in line with my moral standards and that the comments of the blog’s author on other blogs meet the standards as well (one blogger in particular suffers from this problem).  For the comment sections, I don’t expect one to moderate to the degree that all comments meet my moral standards, but that truly, wildly objectional comments are deleted and somewhat to moderately objectionable content is somehow rebutted/chastized.
2. Frequency of posting: I’m only going to link to blogs with somewhat regular posting.  Generally that means at least a couple posts a week during the season.  I’m not too concerned with off-season posting but someone who is consistent all the time gets extra props.
3. Quality of posts: What this means depends on what your blog is trying to accomplish.  If you’re just trying to report news, I’m not going to hold it against you that you don’t have detailed analysis.  At the same time, if your goal is news and you’re always a week behind everyone else, well, that’s not very good news.  On the other hand, if you’re a game-analyst type guy, I’m not going to hold slower posting against you, but I do expect that your analysis is meaningful.  Generally what this means is if when I go to your blog, do I find something worth reading?
4. Longevity: I generally like to see that a blog has been around for atleast a year before it gets the nod.  This is partially to give me time to judge based on the above criteria and also because lots of bloggers drop off within a month or two of blogging.

If you don’t care if you get a link on this blog, that’s fine.  But if you do, those are the criteria I judge by.  Consider this post a good place to put your blog’s URL so that I can see if it is one I want to include in the fall.

We heard about the Colorado St. game getting picked up by CSTV about a month agon and now we have the preliminary ABC/ESPN/ESPN2 schedule for the Bears.  The short answer for the Bears is that both the Tennessee game and the USC game will now be at 5:00 PM and that the Tennessee game will definitely be on ABC.  It’s being incorrectly reported in certain cirlces that the USC game will be on ABC as well.  While that is the likely case, it could still be on any of ABC/ESPN/ESPN2.  I suspect that’s what will happen if Cal or USC loses 3 or 4 games by the time the November matchup rolls around.

While we’re on the topic of TV coverage, since I’m sure I get a ton of readers from the Cal Athletic Office (har har), this whole “we’ll let you know the game time and channel 12 days, or in the worst case 6 days out” really sucks as a ticket holder.  I’ve got small kids that I take to the games and it makes life a lot easier to know what the game times are ahead of time.  I’ll take them to any game between noon and 5:00 PM for the start, but the late FSN 7:00 PM games are just too late for a 3 year old.  It would really be nice if you guys got rid of the whole “exclusive time blocks” crud that requires all of the game time manipulation.

Similarly, if I knew a road game wasn’t going to be televised more than a week or two in advance, I’d be tempted to arrange travel plans to go see the game in person.  But with that little warning, it’s much more difficult, particularly for places like Oregon where getting tickets can be difficult.

The reality is that there are enough channels these days for every Pac-10 game to be on every week.  There is no excuse for TV contracts that make it impossible for that to happen and require us fans to constantly be adjusting for changing game times and which cable/satalite package we need to watch all of the games.